中国经济容易出现泡沫China can navigate rate hikes and property risks

China is not a “bubble economy”, but it is an economy prone to bubbles. There is a big difference.

中国不是一个“泡沫经济体”，但它是一个容易出现泡沫的经济体。这两者的含义大不相同。

Over the past decade many have predicted imminent doom for China. They have been wrong. China’s economy has soared in the wake of the West’s financial crisis. In spite of this, risks have mounted. Rising wages and commodity prices are fuelling inflation. High food prices hit the poor hard. China has faced several challenges over recent decades and come out on top. Its institutions and policy tools have worked well. Now, its immediate challenges are more intense than ever.

过去十年间，许多人曾预测中国即将没落。他们错了。在西方爆发金融危机之后，中国经济大幅增长。尽管如此，风险已经上升。不断上涨的薪资和大宗商品价格正在推助通胀。食品价格高企对穷人打击沉重。近几十年，中国面临过诸多挑战，但总是可以克服困难。中国的机制和政策工具发挥了很好的作用。而眼下，中国面临着前所未有的严峻挑战。

First, the need to rebalance its economy is greater than before. China must shift from investment and exports towards consumption. This domestic imbalance has not improved in the past two years.

首先，中国比以往任何时候都更需要实现经济再平衡。中国经济必须从投资和出口转向消费。过去两年，这种内部失衡未能得到改善。

The global recession showed China can no longer rely on selling low-value-added goods to heavily-indebted western consumers. Hence, the 12th Five-Year Plan, scheduled to be rubber-stamped at this March’s National People’s Congress, seeks to move the economy up the value-curve and focus more on domestic demand.

全球衰退表明，中国不再能够依赖向负债累累的西方消费者出售低附加值商品来发展经济。因此，预计将在今年3月召开的全国人大会议上获批的“十二五”规划，将寻求推动经济向价值曲线的上端发展，同事更注重内需。

Although welcome, this plan will not address an immediate problem: excessive investment, which has soared to 44 per cent of GDP. Economies that witness high investment are prone to booms and busts.

尽管这令人高兴，但它无法解决迫在眉睫的问题：过度投资——投资比例已飙升至国内生产总值(GDP)的44%。大举投资的经济体容易大起大落。

The animal spirits driving investment can change abruptly, if productivity disappoints, growth expectations dip or the cost of funding rises. In China, the added complication is the role of the government and banks in funding what might prove to be inefficient private investment spending. That too can not last.

如果生产力令人失望，增长预期下降或融资成本上升，推动投资的动物精神就可能突然改变。在中国，令事情更为复杂的是，政府和银行在为一些可能被证明为低效私人投资支出提供融资上所扮演的角色。这种情形也不可能长久。

Second, China’s economy will become harder to control. Booming regional economies, alongside the growing private sector, make it harder to run the economy from Beijing.

其次，中国经济将变得更难以管理。日益兴旺的区域经济，加上不断成长的私人部门，将加大中国政府管理经济的难度。

Third, China’s vulnerability arises from its under-developed financial sector. For instance, there are limited options for household savings: low interest-bearing bank accounts; equities, where governance concerns persist; or real estate, where prices are already sky-high in many cities.

第三，中国金融行业欠发达所带来的脆弱性。例如，居民储蓄的选择有限：低利率的银行账户；一直存在治理担忧的股市；或者房地产——许多城市的房价已经高得离谱。

One reason personal savings are high is the lack of an adequate social safety net and the need to pay for education and healthcare. The last thing China needs is to burden itself with Europe’s expensive and unsustainable welfare system, but it must expand its existing social infrastructure to support consumption growth.

中国个人储蓄高企的原因之一，在于缺乏足够的社会保障网络，以及需要支付教育和医疗费用。中国最不需要的，就是采用欧洲昂贵且不可持续的福利体系、来加重自己的负担，但它必须扩大现有的社会基础设施，以支持消费增长。

Unlike many other countries, China’s corporate and government sectors are high savers too. This compounds the problem. Hence firms, including state-owned enterprises, are coming under pressure to pay dividends. There is talk of a privatisation process post-2012. This would force companies to use capital efficiently.

与其它许多国家不同的是，中国的企业和政府部门也是高储蓄机构。这让问题更为严重。因此包括国有企业在内的机构正承受着付息的压力。有传闻称，中国将在2012年后开始私有化进程。这将迫使企业有效地使用资金。

China is developing its financial sector, but not fast enough to keep pace with its economy. Although its bond market has grown over the past decade from $202bn to $2,700bn, corporate bond issuance remains low. China needs deeper and broader domestic capital markets to use its high domestic savings efficiently and to absorb increasing inflows.

中国正在发展金融行业，但发展速度还跟不上经济的发展步伐。尽管过去十年间，中国债券市场规模已从2020亿美元增至2.7万亿美元，但企业债券发行额仍然有限。中国需要更具深度和广度的国内资本市场，以有效利用其巨额的国内储蓄，并消化不断流入的资本。

Property is China’s biggest problem. A few years ago, the “Greenspan put” kept US interest rates too low for too long to support the equity market. China can not fall into the same trap with property. Property taxes are being tested in Chongqing, China’s biggest city, and in Shanghai, with Beijing and Shenzhen likely to follow. These are aimed at speculators and high-end investors, a small group buying multiple or expensive homes. The mass market will not be affected. The limited scale of the tax reflects China’s gradualist approach to policy-making, particularly in controversial areas.

房地产是中国最大的问题。几年前，“格林斯潘对策”(Greenspan Put)让美国利率在太长时期内保持在太低水平，因而难以为股市提供支持。中国房地产不能陷入同样的困境。位列中国最大城市的重庆和上海，目前正在开展房产税试点，北京和深圳也可能会跟进。这些措施旨在打击一小部分购买多套住宅或豪宅的投机者和高端投资者。大众市场将不会受到影响。房产税的有限规模，反映出中国在政策制定方面——尤其是在有争议领域——的渐进做法。

The other sources of China’s instability are its low interest rates and weaker than needed currency. China needs to avoid the lethal combination of cheap money, leverage and one-way expectations, particularly in property, that hit the west. These factors make the economy prone to bubbles and raise the risk of a near-term set-back – either as the bubble bursts or, more likely, as policymakers act.

中国不稳定的其它源泉是低利率和人民币汇率弱于必要水平。中国必须避免货币廉价、杠杆和单向预期（尤其是在房地产市场）这种冲击西方的致命组合。这些因素会使经济容易出现泡沫，并加大了近期遭受挫折的风险——无论是当泡沫破裂、还是政策制定者采取措施（后者可能行更大）的时候。

China has to tighten sharply. Last year, authorities held back, given growth concerns. The economy’s recent momentum seems to be strengthening their resolve. Expect further loan quotas, rising bank reserve ratios, sharply higher interest rates, targeted property taxes and likely steeper currency appreciation than expectations. Tuesday’s rate increase is a sign of things to come.

中国必须大幅收紧政策。去年，中国政府出于增长方面的担忧而有所克制。中国经济近来的增长势头似乎让他们下定了决心。预计中国政府将会进一步实施贷款配额、提高银行准备金率、大幅加息、出台有针对性的房产税，并可能允许人民币以高于预期的幅度升值。周二的加息是出台后续措施的信号。

If there were a setback, the market impact would be significant. There would be much comment about China’s growth being a bubble. That would be wrong. China’s growth is real. Any slowdown would be temporary and present a buying opportunity. It would highlight that the business cycle exists in China and that whilst the trend is up, one should expect setbacks along the way.

如果中国遭遇挫折，将会给市场造成重大影响。很多人会说中国的增长是泡沫。那将是错误的。中国的增长是真实的。任何放缓都将是暂时的，都代表着买入的机会。它将突出表明中国存在商业周期，尽管趋势是向上的，但人们应该预计到过程中会遇到波折。

Dr Gerard Lyons is chief economist and group head of global research at Standard Chartered Bank

本文作者是渣打银行(Standard Chartered)全球研究部主管兼首席经济学家李籁思博士(Dr. Gerard Lyons)