英雄联盟2016战队图标:探秘中国真正的经济规模

It is an important question. New figures suggest China could have just overtaken Japan as the world's second-largest economy.

But how do we know? Can we trust statistics from China, which is not always open and transparent with numbers?

Interviews with market stallholders suggest they do not always declare everything they earn to the Chinese tax bureau.

This implies that China's economy could be bigger than the government believes.

这是个很重要的问题，最新数据显示中国已经超于日本成为世界第二大经济体。但是我们如何知道？ 我们是否可以相信来自中国的一贯不甚公开和透明的统计数据？调查市场中的摊贩们发现，他们总是不太明白他们应该交多少税。

从这里可以看出，中国的经济规模应该会更大一些。

Wang Xiaolu, of the China Reform Foundation, carried out research that supports this idea. He says the hidden economy could be huge.

来自中国改革基金会的王小璐（音译）从事的研究证实了这一点。他说隐形经济总量很大。

Methods questioned

质问统计方法

Mr Wang checked income and spending patterns in a survey covering 4,000 samples across 19 Chinese provinces.

He estimates that in 2008, the disposable income of urban Chinese households could have been 90% more than the government thought.

Not all economists believe Chinese economic data is completely unreliable, but some question the methods used to collect it.

王先生进行了一项对中国19省4000名样本的收入和支出调查。 他估计，2008年中国城市居民可支配收入可能已经超过官方统计数字的90%。并不是所有的经济学家都不相信中国的经济数据。另外一些在质疑中国的统计方法。

Wang Tao, head of economic research in China for the bank UBS, said China relied on local governments and businesses to report what they were doing.

"Sometimes it might be in the interests of a locality or a company to over-report what they have done, especially if their boss will then look on them favourably," she said.

瑞银中国研究员，王涛指出中国依赖于地方政府和经济体报告他们的经济活动。“考虑到地方的经济利益或者高层领导的喜好，有时难免会夸大其词。”

There is another problem.

Letting businesses to report was easier when China had a planned economy and there were relatively few sectors in the economy

It is now more open and capitalist. Individuals can start their own businesses and whole industries can spring up in a short period of time. This makes it difficult for the government to track the economy.

还有另外一个问题。在中国还是计划经济的时候，经济分支比较少，报告制会比较容易。发展到现在，经济更加开放和资本化。个体可以自由看展自己的经济活动，整个行业可能在短期内迅速膨胀，这也使政府在跟踪经济发展时面临更大的挑战。

"For example, when the economy is booming, you could have a restaurant set up, but nobody went there and asked them to report," said Ms Wang.

"But when the economy goes bad, maybe they went bust and nobody noticed."

王先生说："举例来说，当经济繁荣的时候，在某地新开业了一件餐馆，但是也许会没人去找他们报告营业情况。当经济情况恶化，他们破产了，也会没人注意到。”

Terms of trade

All this means that the speed of economic growth in China - it grew by 8.7% for the whole of last year - is perhaps exaggerated, but the economy is possibly bigger than estimates suggest.

贸易条件

所有这些意味着中国的经济增长速度-去年全年增长8.7%，这个数字可能被夸大了，但是经济总量可能远远大于估计。中国经济总量可能早几年已经超过日本了。

China's economy could have overtaken Japan's several years ago. 

Gathering accurate statistics is not just an academic exercise. It helps governments, businesses and individuals make informed financial decisions.

探寻准确的统计数据并不只是学术上的要求，它更有利于政府，商业以及个体做出正确的经济决策。

One group of people who need dependable information are individual stock market traders in China.

They gather at small stock trading centres in towns and cities across the country. Citic Securities runs one that is housed in the former home of an imperial princess in Beijing.

在中国，股民就是其中一群需要可靠消息的人，他们聚集在全国各地的股票交易所里。王玉祥，曾经到中信证券--位于北京一个前公主的庭院，进行股票买卖。

Wang Yuxiang has been going there for the best part of a decade to buy and sell shares on China's stock markets.

She is one of dozens of pensioners who spend hours each day watching the centre's electronic notice board report the latest company movements.

她是千百个退休着中的一员，他们每天盯着中央电子屏幕上的最新经济活动。那么她相信所有这新经济数据和信息吗？

Does she trust all economic data and information?

"There's always true and false information - companies are no different. You have to watch a business over a period of time," said the 65-year-old.

已经65岁的她说道：“每个公司都有很多正确的和错误的信息，你需要长期关注来区分。”

The pensioner is particularly wary of state-run companies, because she believes they are unpredictable.

So if Mrs Wang does not trust all China's economic data, how can economists really calculate when China will overtake Japan as the world's second-largest economy?

离退休人员对国有公司一般都格外警觉，因为他们认为这些公司高深莫测。因此如果王女士都不相信所有的中国经济数据，经济学家又是如何计算出中国已经超越日本成为第二大经济体了？

Wang Tao, of UBS, suggested that perhaps we should not get too fixated with that particular milestone.

"Contribution to world growth matters more than size. From that point of view, China passed Japan quite a while ago," she said.