诺亚方舟的图片:Dangers lurking in China's economy - Focus di...

来源：百度文库编辑：九乡新闻网时间：2024/07/14 00:36:43

Dangers lurking in China's economy

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2011-4-13 08:46

Over the past three decades, the Chinese economy has grown at an annual clip of around 10%, a pace that stands out this year especially as the global economy is gripped by turmoil in Japan, the Middle East and parts of Europe.

But Beijing's continued success isn't a sure bet. Many fast-growing countries have flamed out. Here are three problems that could turn China into an also-ran over the next few years.

The property bubble bursts. In China's three dozen largest cities, prices have shot up by about 50% over the past two years, according to Dragonomics Research, a Beijing consulting firm. Ordinary Chinese have become real-estate speculators, in a kind of replay of Florida and Arizona around 2007, figuring that real-estate prices can only go up.

The Chinese government is trying to let the air out of the real-estate bubble by increasing mortgage downpayments and introducing property taxes, among other measures. But that may not be enough. Local governments depend on revenue from land sales to fund their operations—and as opportunities for graft. UBS Investment says it will be "very difficult" for China to avoid a burst bubble in the "medium term," which usually means in the next three to five years. But some China hands warn that a reckoning could come earlier.

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China specialist Nicholas Lardy says a real-estate collapse could shave 2.5 percentage points off Chinese growth—a deeper hit than the country took at the start of the global financial crisis.

Unbalanced rebalancing. China has grown rapidly by massive investments in highways, airports, shipping terminals, mines, steel mills and other projects and by helping exporters through low wages and an undervalued currency. But that economic strategy may be losing steam. Although investment has risen to nearly 50% of gross domestic product, job creation is limping along at 1% a year.

Recently, China's leaders again declared they would "rebalance" their economy, this time by promising to lift workers' incomes so they at least kept up with the rate of growth.

Harmonious society Although Chinese citizens get enraged at land grabs by local authorities and other abuses of power, demonstrations are sporadic and rarely spread nationally. Sometimes, the Chinese look at Beijing as an ally in fighting corrupt local officials.

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