贵金属网络营销技巧:Japan's first quarter（日本经济衰退见底？）

Japan's recession, now four quarters old, knocks the spots off those in other major developed economies. So Germany expects to shrink 6 per cent this year? Pshaw. Japan managed that in just five months. The world's second biggest economy contracted 4 per cent quarter on quarter in the first three months of 2009, according to data released on Wednesday. That follows a 3.8 per cent decline in the previous quarter.

It is tempting to see this as the nadir. Japan's worst slump since the war is accompanied by some chirpier signs. Forward leading indicators, including those measuring sentiment, are nudging upwards. Since Japan is, in effect, a leveraged play on the global economy, it seems reasonable that green shoots sighted elsewhere should sprout here too.

There are technical reasons to expect a better showing this quarter. Japanese inventories are being whittled back, shaving 0.3 percentage points off growth. Industrial production, back at 1983 levels, and exports, keeping pace with 2003, cannot fall at the same steep magnitudes forever – especially with governments everywhere in stimulus mode. Early indications suggest fiscal spending may be having an impact at home too. Japan's three big carmakers are claiming year-on-year increases of 20-30 per cent in new orders this month, following the introduction of tax breaks on eco-friendly cars.

But none of this is necessarily sustainable. Household consumption, down 1.1 per cent quarter on quarter, remains worryingly weak. Unemployment continues to rise, summer bonuses will reportedly be crimped by more than 10 per cent and the savings rate has already dropped below that of the US. Ditto for private capital expenditure, down 10.4 per cent quarter on quarter, given the sea of red ink at manufacturers and depressed utilisation rates. When sales pick up, manufacturers need only reopen shuttered plants, not build new ones.

Japan may indeed have touched bottom; with nominal GDP now back at 1992 levels, it must be hoped that it has. But it will be a long haul back out again.

日本陷入经济衰退已经有4个季度了，其严重程度超过了其他主要发达经济体。德国预计今年经济将萎缩6%？那有什么？日本只用5个月就做到了。周三公布的数据显示，继去年第四季度萎缩3.8%之后，今年第一季度，这个世界第二大经济体又萎缩了4%。

将此视为谷底的诱惑很大。日本二战以来最严重的经济滑坡，伴随着一些较为喜人的迹象。包括景气指标在内的前瞻性领先指标，都呈现出轻微上行趋势。由于日本实际上是对全球经济有放大效果的指标，其他地区发现的复苏萌芽，似乎也应该在这里生根发芽。

一些技术性原因让我们期待，日本当前季度的表现会有所好转。日本正在大举削减库存——减少了0.3个百分点的增幅。工业产值回到1983年的水平，出口与2003年持平，但它们不可能永远以同样急剧的幅度下降——特别是在世界各地的政府都在刺激经济增长的情况下。初步迹象显示，财政支出可能也已经开始在国内产生影响。在推出针对环保汽车的减税措施后，日本三大汽车制造商本月宣布新订单同比增加了20%至30%。

但这些都未必是可持续的。季度降幅达1.1%的家庭消费仍疲弱得令人担忧；失业率继续上升；夏季奖金据说将减少10%以上；储蓄率已降到比美国还低的水平。鉴于制造商陷入亏损的海洋，开工率低迷，季度降幅达10.4%的私营部门资本支出可能也会继续下降。在销售上升的时候，制造商只需要让关闭的工厂重新开工，而不必建造新工厂。

日本经济或许确实已经触底；鉴于名义国内生产总值如今已回到1992年的水平，人们必然会产生这种希望。但要摆脱当今困局，路途还很遥远。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

译者/红云