房地产泡沫破裂的后果分析

来源：岁月联盟 作者：魏晓峰 时间：2010-06-24 摘要：房地产泡沫的破裂首先对银行产生巨大的危害，通过对包括香港在内的22个化国家和地产的住房市场及股市的热潮和衰落的研究，我们发现住房价格下跌更可能使银行受到打击，原因是在多数国家，银行主导着购房贷款业务。但是房地产泡沫所带来的灾难远不止停留在银行的层面上。
　　关键词：房地产泡沫；泡沫破裂；危机；危机；社会危机
　　
　　一、房地产泡沫破裂诱发经济危机
　　
　　(一)生产萎缩
　　房地产泡沫的破灭往往伴随着经济萧条，股价下跌，财务营运逐渐陷入困境。股价下跌使企业发行的大量可转换公司认股权在长期内不能转为股权，从而给企业带来巨额的偿债负担；此外，地价和股价下跌也使企业承受了巨大的资产评估损失和被迫出售土地和股票的销售损失。企业收益的减少又使得投资不足，既降低了研究开发投资水平，也减少了企业在设备上的投资。1992年，日本制造业的研究开发费用下降3.5％，以这次危机为转折点，日本逐渐失去了在汽车和半导体等部门的优势。生产的不景气又导致了雇佣环境的恶化和居民实际收入的下降。据泰国官方统计数字，1998年1至7月，泰国破产企业达5,377家，停产企业达6,538家。至1997年底，失业人数达120万，1998年又增加到200万。
　　
　　(二)消费锐减
　　Case et al.(2001)等人的研究指出房地产价格的变动对消费的影响远大于股票，以香港经验来看，是当楼价大幅下滑造成大量负资产，房地产交易大幅减少，连带建筑、工程、银行抵押及律师行的生意大受影响，最终影响会扩展至高档消费市场及其它行业。此外，地价的下跌使得居民个人所拥有的土地资产贬值。由于经济不景气和个人收入水平的下降，居民对未来怀有不同程度的忧心，因此会减少当期的消费，扩大收入中的储蓄部分。以备不时之需，以美国经验来看，房地产业的下滑至少使经济增长率下降2个百分点以上。
　　
　　(三)经济增速下降
　　个人消费的萎缩又使众多生产消费品的产业部门陷入困境。令大量企业倒闭及裁员。图1为1982年至2006年香港失业率和就业不足率情况，自1998年开始不断攀升，直至2004年才开始下降。企业倒闭及裁员意味着大量的失业员工，即使没有倒闭的企业。由于收益的下降也要不断裁减人员。
　　
　　二、房地产泡沫破裂还可能引发政治和社会危机
　　
　　随着房地产泡沫破裂和经济危机的发生，失业人数剧增，社会民怨会增加。以香港为例，1997年房地产泡沫破灭后，以举报个案的犯罪率开始攀升，由1997年的每10万人有1,038宗，增加至2004年的1,299宗，增幅高达25.14％，直至2005年才开始同落。以图2为例，由1997年至2005年间犯罪率与香港私人住宅售价指数走势基本上呈相反方向变动，即当住宅指数下跌时，犯罪率会上升，相反亦言，由于2001年及2002年属于不规则情况，若从图中剔除，并以虚线连接2000年及2003年，前迹的反向关系更为清晰。
　　
　　
　　我们再以散点图重绘香港私人住宅售价指数(以平均计算)与犯罪率的关系。由点的分布来看，两者存在反向关系，但并不是直线关系，表明还有其它因素在发生作用。由于人们对日益恶化的经济危机感到不满，香港社会危机逐渐加剧。中产阶级、负资产业主、工人，甚至商家此起彼伏地采用不同形式向政府表达不满、终于导致发生了2003年7月1日的50万人示威游行，幸而在中央的大力支持下，示威并没有引起暴乱，亦没有造成社会动荡不安。但在经济形势每况愈下，最终迫使董建华以健康理由在2005年3月10日向中央请辞。
　　香港房地产泡沫破灭亦同样令百业萧条，失业率上升，但香港的经济基础较坚稳，社会福利保障亦较其它东南亚国家完善，尽管民怨日深，但始终没有造成太大的社会动荡。在图4为由1997年4月至2005年3月香港私人住宅售价指数与特首董建华的支特度走趋比较，不难发现董建华自出任特首开始，支特度一直下跌，与楼价走势相似，但波动幅度较细，支特度长期在50以下，而2003年7月期间更一度跌至40以下。
　　图5为香港私人住宅售价指数与特首董建华的支特度的相关度分析，我们可以见到在楼价由55至95之区间，正相关度较高，高于或低于此区间，相关度较低，反映民意认为某些环境不是特区政府或董建华所能控制的，例如亚洲风暴或非典疫情令房价下跌，说明香港民意是有理智的。
　　
　　
　　
　　
　　三、
　　
　　总而言之，房地产业的，关系到相关产业的发展以及整个国民经济的增长。房地产行业的投资风险问题，关系到政府对房地产业的调控措施制定、企业投资方向确定以及金融机构决策等。如果对房地产的泡沫程度、房地产业投资风险评估有误，将可能会对个人、企业和社会造成无法估量的损失。日本、东南亚、香港等国家和地区的房地产泡沫所引发的金融危机几乎使这些国家和地区的经济一蹶不振，也造成大批企业倒闭，投资者倾家荡产。近代的资产泡沫破灭事件不但规模大、次数频密、影响深远，而且不再局限于资本市场，有互动、跨国和跨产业的趋势。近代较严重的泡沫事件包括八十年代末发生在日本的房地产泡沫、九十年代末发生的亚洲金融危机导致部分东南亚地区的地产泡沫破灭，及在2000年发生的科网股泡沫破灭。至于香港，早于1881年便首次出现房地产泡沫，但令人们记忆犹新的还是由1997年至2003年间房地产曾泻近70％的经历。事实上，房地产泡沫在世界上其它大城市亦随处可见，上海由1995年至1999年间房地产价格下跌了近38％，莫斯科在1995年至1999年间下跌了近67％，巴黎在1991年至1998年间下跌了近43％。当然，房地产泡沫与大多数投机泡沫一样，最终逃不了暴跌的下场。每一次房地产泡沫破灭不但令许多私房拥有者带来痛苦，也对当地的经济发展，甚至给政府的管治威信带来沉重的打击。研究房地产泡沫的成因、形成过程、泡沫破灭的诱因和导火线，舒解和烫平泡沫的方法和对策，特别是在设立预警机制、REITs和衍生工具(例如根据Halifac房价指数而设的hedgelets)，不但对社会稳定和经济发展有一定的实用性，而且对房地产以至金融理论的创新亦有一定的价值。因而，正确分析房地产泡沫的成因，房地产泡沫存在与否及泡沫的规模，从而正确评价房地产行业投资风险，对于政府宏观调控、房地产商投资决策及金融机构决策等都有很好的作用(谢明干、江春泽1999)。

readers. Traumatized by the rape of Sethe and the ma-ternal violation,Halle gradually loses his mind.Hisselfhood shatters.He smeared that butter on his face,Sethe thinks,because the milk they took from her ison his mind eventually.Those complex factors drivehim in mental disorder as most mad people do. Even,he disappears from the community for permanent es-cape from the trauma, the mortal ruin rather than per-manent safety.
　　Passive victims
　　As father does,Howard and Bugler,sons ofSethe and Halle run away after living in 124 for sev-eral years.Not behaving like Denver, their sister, theycan't face the haunting spirit combined with theirmother's prayer for penance in 124.They deny not in slavery.As research of psychoanalysis reveals, exil- ing is one way to trauma when one is unable to resolveit with mental strength.The brothers respond it in theway. It's impossible for the victims to heal their trau-ma when they choose deathly stillness in front of pain,which brings on pessimistic attitudes towards life andpassive way towards trauma.They are so young thatthe traumatic effect of slavery is destructive for them.To some degree,they share the same state with theirpoor father,permanent self-exiling with the incurabletrauma.
　　Surviving victims
　　Paul D is one of the enslaved in Sweet Home, where Sethe and Halle is enslaved.Unlike Sethebounding herself in 124 after all hardships,he expe- riences more,combed with all hardships and arduous self-reorganization.
　　His"tobacco tin"caused by former trauma is aroused by Beloved,who literally manipulates him, making him physically restless and forcing him to sleep with her in the shed outside the house.Though Paul D's hatred for Beloved never ceases,their strange,dreamlike sexual encounters open the lid of his"tobacco tin"heart,allowing him to remember, feel,and love again.The traumatic awaking plays a role again when he temporarily retreats after learning Sethe murdering her child."He must work out of a condition of psychic fragmentation——his selfhood has been severely impaired, his status as a human subject denied by the slave culture".
　　When he decides to returns to Sethe and her fearful, murderous love, he tries to reconstruct future. He has the capacity to lead Sethe out of her narcissis- tic isolation and into relationship with the external world. "He is able to salvage out of the wreckage bol- stering faith in both self and other.He tries to pass this faith on to Sethe at the end."His fingers holding hers,he told Sethe that Sethe herself was her best thing instead of Beloved. His faith indicates the initia-tives of dealing with trauma.He successfully does it, and so does Sethe as he wishes.The scene between them at the end comes closest to the state of mutual recognition and attunement by Paul D's last rescue. His struggle witnesses the victory of beating the trau-ma bequeathed by slavery Besides Paul D,Denver is another character of healing the trauma and achieving maturity after suffer- ing. Though eighteen years old,she acts much younger, maintaining an intense fear of the world out- side 124 and a perilously fragile sense of self. Feeling lonely and exiled,her self-hood develops with the growing of her sense of self.
　　She is enlightened by the latter crisis of her poor family. In the face of Beloved's escalating malevo- lence and her mother's submissiveness,Denver is forced to step outside the world of 124.Filled with a sense of duty,purpose,and courage,her departure from 124 marks the beginning of her social integration and of her search for independence,self-possession and separate self. Despite all hardships, she practicesher nirvana, which is a great exaltation of the psyche.Vengeful victim and purgatorial one
　　Beloved is combination of pre-Oedipal complex,a child's early (non-sexual) fixation on the mother pri- or to the child's entrance into the Oedipal Complexi-dentified by Freud and maternal hatred,which seem very contradictory.
　　At the very beginning, Beloved and Denver love each other like a union.When the truth that Beloved is the ghost of Denver's dead sister is revealed, they denies each other for their desire for the same mother. The sense of envy is also pre-Oedipal complex. Under the circumstance,sister-hood gives way to mother- hood.
　　Paradoxically,Beloved's desire for mother is vengeful due to her trauma of being killed by her own mother. She makes efforts to tortures Sethe mentally as possible as she can.The interaction between Beloved and Sethe is tense and vulnerable like the endurance of a chord. Once Sethe reciprocates Beloved's violent passion for her,the two become locked in a destruc-tive, exclusive,parasitic relationship.
　　Sometimes,Beloved becomes extremely malevo- lent.The scene in which she almost strangles Sethe, an act that mirrors the way her mother previously sawed through her throat,suggests her extreme hatred on Sethe.Her revenge is practiced by her violence and viciousness:she seduces her mother's lover (Paul D) and attacks Sethe's dog,her house,and Sethe herself. Because mother and daughter have become indistin- guishable by her wretched demands,in which Sethe becomes emaciated while she becomes fat,her attack on Sethe is effectively a form of self-destruction at the same time she ruins Sethe fiercely.By the way, her resentment will be eased little.Her vengeful desire is so poignant that that all are ruined won't satisfy her. She is a cursed ghost,who is not only cursed but also curses the whole.124 is her considerable place,where everything is arranged for her resentment.Her trauma seems incurable because it is frequently deposited and increased for ever like inanition.
　　More fortunate than Beloved,Sethe is still cur- able although she is almost ruined by the hardships of slavery. What she experiences is the purgatorial suffer- ing, the most severe pain in life.
　　In the hardships of slavery,unwilling to relin- quish her children to the physical,emotional, and spir- itual trauma she has endured as a slave, she success- fully murders one of her children,which she considers as an act of mother's love and protection.Actually, the deed is the extreme of mother's devotion to her baby, which she repeats and emphasizes for several times in front of others. Her extreme is one of tenden- cy people are likely to have when they are in the posi- tion of possession and losing.She considers her baby as one part of herself,the beautiful part,which she has right to dispose.In the hardest time,the time of despair,she desperately decides the baby's destina- tion by murdering her cruelly.The extreme cruelty lingers on her mind as a trauma in her latter life after the end of the slavery.Afterwards,Sethe's behavior becomes purgatorial.She encloses herself in 124, where she can regret for her cruelty of murdering her baby. She is unable to tell anyone about her past and she is totally enslaved by it.
　　She is broken down and also cured when she be- comes hysteria in struggle with her trauma,which is unintentionally treated while she is forced by Beloved to recall the unendurable past——stories about her own feelings of abandonment by her mother,about the harshest indignities she suffered at Sweet Home,and about her motivations for murdering her daughter. Her hysteria is confirmed by her actions in the exorcism scene, where she attacks the liberal white man, Ed- ward Bodwin. Freud and Breuer proposed that hysteri- cal symptoms disappear when the memory of the dis- turbing event that first provoked symptoms is recalled and the affect of trauma is aroused.Cure comes through the reproduction of the primal scene of trau- ma, which creates an opportunity for revision of the psychic events that cause the primal trauma.
　　Sethe trying to kill Bodwin symbolically consti- tutes a restaging of her trauma:the death of her daughter. Bodwin approaches the house to collect Den- ver for work in the same way that schoolteacher ap- proached to recapture his slaves. But this time, Sethe chooses a different course of action.Instead of trying to protect her children by killing them, she flies at Bodwin with an ice pick. For the first time, her protest is directed outward toward the source of oppression, represented by Bodwin (who stands for schoolteacher), rather than taking the form of self-destruction of mur- dering her own children last time. At that moment Beloved disappears. She is also released and saved by mother's hysteria and her desperate response to the same trauma, which the mother and the daughter share for so long.
　　Only when Sethe learns to confront the past head-on, to assert herself in its presence, can she lib-erates herself from its oppressive power and begin to live freely, peacefully, and responsibly in the present. After the climax,Sethe is extremely exhausted while Paul D eventually returns to the house. When she lies in bed,Paul D gives her hope, gently touching her face: "Me and you, we got more yesterday than any- body…We need some kind of tomorrow.""'You your best thing, Sethe. You are.' His holding fingers are holding hers. 'Me? Me?"Although Sethe is unsure about herself, she begins to recognize that she herself may be the center of her life, rather than the passing baby or the past gone by. She is forgiven not only by Paul D but also by the circles of blacks,who are also the victims of slavery.Her desire and Paul D's are unlocked to envision the fresh future for them.In a sense, they bring one another back to life. Their con-soling power,which lies in the mutuality of the inner experience and suffering after all the trauma, leads the characters to nirvana, the focus from the traumatic past to the present underway.
　　As the demonstration above, people respond to trauma distinctively and deserve various effects."The hardships have deep repercussions in the individual's internal world so that even if one is eventually freed from external bondage, the self will still be trapped in an inner world that prevents a genuine experience of freedom."If one can save themselves out of the inner illusion of bondage and face the reality despite the traumatic past and,the mortal trauma will be erased, nirvana beyond the trauma.