车轻微划痕怎么办:中国再上调存准率 中小企业遭殃

2011年 05月 13日 09:15中国再上调存准率 中小企业遭殃 评论(4) 为遏制通胀，中国再次要求银行拿出更多存款准备金，这是去年11月以来第八次上调存款准备金率，尽管鲜有迹象表明此举可抑制物价，而外界则担心这会剥夺艰难挣扎的小企业获得资本的能力。

周四，中国有关当局宣布上调存款准备金率0.5个百分点。周三发布数据显示，中国4月份通胀率同比上升5.3%，食品价格暴涨11.5%，这是连续六个月食品价格以两位数增长。

4 月CPI比3月稍有回落，但仍构成一项重大风险：当局还没能遏制通胀压力。此外，还有其它令人忧心的迹象。4月银行新增贷款1,120亿美元，超过预期。 4月贸易顺差意外从3月的1.39亿美元飙升至114亿美元，也就是说有更多资金涌入中国经济，增加了收紧流动性的需求。

相关报导中国央行年内第五次上调存款准备金率
财经点评：加息是中国央行更好的选择
发改委官员：通胀率超过5%难以忍受
财经点评：“共和国长子”何去何从？
美林：通胀之下中国股市不安全
刘罡读报：中国通货膨胀形势严峻吗？
跟其它主要经济体不一样的是，中国把存款准备金率当作抵御通货膨胀的第一道防线，认为它会使银行难以发放贷款，从而为过热的中国经济降温。

此次上调存款准备金率将于5月18日起生效，届时中国大型银行的准备金率将升至21%，步入世界最高水平之列。美国的银行存款准备金率为10%。

很多分析人士认为，中国正在酝酿未来再上调几次银行存款准备金率，可能会使其升至高达23%的水平。

但中国经济学家说，挤压银行会带来各种意想不到的后果，包括鼓励银行绕开规定，以其它方式放贷，而这样做会影响上调存款准备金率的抗通胀效果。中资银行在吸引存款方面一直表现特别积极，这样就可继续放贷，催生出大量监管不严的理财产品。这些情况可能会在将来某个时候让监管者大伤脑筋。

另外，存款准备金率对小银行的影响一般远远大于对大银行的影响，而且妨碍银行给中小企业放贷，相反它们会偏爱大型国企。很多经济学家坚持认为，如果中国要继续保持持续、快速增长，就应推动小企业发展，鼓励必要的创新。

美国康奈尔大学(Cornell University)中国问题专家普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)说，上调存款准备金率可能导致经济中更具效益的部门信贷受限，从而削弱生产率增长，而生产率增长是抗通胀的帮手。

温州中小企业发展促进会会长周德文说，由于存款准备金率上调，温州银行的放贷速度急剧放缓。他估计，该协会中70%的会员贷不到款，而那些贷到款的在算上各种费用之后，每年要付12%至24%的年息。至于求助典当行或富商等私人贷款的中小企业，每年支付的利息最高可达100%。温州是东部沿海城市，中国的创业之都。

周德文说，目前很多企业都处于停工或半停工状态。

加息是世界很多国家的优先抗通胀工具，但中国对直接加息十分谨慎。这种措施会作用于整个经济，令经济活动放缓，信用低的客户日子过得最艰难，而不管公司规模是大是小。中国当前作为基准的一年期贷款利率是6.31%，比预期通胀率约高一个百分点，这被认为是对银行贷款活动一种相对温和的约束。

自去年10月份以来，中国已经加息四次，多数分析人士预计接下来只会加息一两次，每次0.25个百分点。

为何如此迟疑？加息会带来很多可能对政府不利的后果，比如会抬高央行出售债券以“冲销”大量境外美元流入、防止人民币急剧升值的成本。在冲销操作中，中国人民银行出售与流入美元数额大致等值的人民币债券。

北京大学中国宏观经济研究中心主任卢锋说，实质上是央行面临着利益冲突。加息就会加大央行自己的成本，从而有可能产生亏损。卢锋说，一个可能的解决办法，是让财政部建立一个特别账户来吸纳外汇亏损，同时发行将来的冲销债券。这会把央行解放出来，让它在不必担心自身资产负债表所受影响的情况下执行货币政策。

但卢锋说，这个想法在中国很难行得通，因为它会约束政府开支决策，并迫使北京认识到，其大量外汇储备是有着重大负面经济影响的。卢锋说，你得承认，以往积累外汇储备的政策正在造成巨大损失，需要用一揽子的专门救援方案来解决；这可能是很难做到的。

前摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)驻中国高管、《红色资本主义》(Red Capitalism)一书联合作者沃尔特(Carl Walter)说，加息还有可能损害中国的大型国有银行。他估计大型国有银行30%的资产都是投资于国内无法赢利、但没有与市场挂钩的证券。加息可能会恶化这个问题。沃尔特说，利率风险是巨大的。

经济学家还说，中国很多领导人都是工程师出身，他们更安于修补经济中的具体环节，而不是让以利率为代表的市场力量发挥更全面的影响。比如，政府官员一直向国内和跨国食品、饮料生产企业施压，要求它们推迟涨价。

美银美林(Bank of America-Merrill Lynch)经济学家陆挺说，最新一次上调准备金率是为了向公众表明他们正在采取某种抗通胀措施。但他说，上调准备金率的经济影响不会很大，因为实际每月贷款量不管怎样都受央行控制。
China Raises Bank Reserves in Uphill Fight Against Inflation China moved again to head off inflation by requiring banks to hold more of their deposits in reserve, the eighth such move since November, despite little evidence that the measure is taming prices, and worries that it is depriving needy smaller companies of capital.

The 0.5-percentage-point increase in the reserve requirement ratio was announced Thursday, a day after China reported annual inflation hit 5.3% in April, with food prices galloping at 11.5%, the sixth straight month in which food prices have risen at double-digit rates.

The inflation figures were slightly lower than in March, but still represented a significant risk that the authorities haven't put a lid on inflationary pressures. And there were other worrying signs: A higher number of bank loans than expected in April, at $112 billion, and a wider-than-expected trade surplus of $11.4 billion, up from $139 million in March, meant more cash flooding into the economy, increasing the need to soak up liquidity.

Unlike most major economies, China uses reserve requirements as its first line of defense against inflation, figuring the tool will make it tougher for banks to lend and thus cool an overheating economy.

When the move takes effect on May 18, China's largest banks will face a 21% reserve requirement, among the highest in the world. By comparison, the U.S. reserve requirement is 10%.

Many analysts think several more reserve-rate requirements are in the works, which could bring the ratio to as high as 23%.

But Chinese economists say that squeezing the banks has a variety of unintended consequences, including encouraging banks to skirt the requirements by lending in ways that aren't covered by the regulations -- thus reducing the anti-inflationary effect of reserve increases. Chinese banks have been especially aggressive in trying to attract deposits so they can continue lending, fueling a proliferation of lightly regulated wealth-management products. That may potentially cause headaches for regulators down the road.

The requirements also tend to hit smaller banks much harder than larger ones and to crimp lending to small and medium-size enterprises, instead favoring huge state-owned companies. Many economists argue that China needs to boost smaller firms to encourage the innovation needed if China is to continue to continue to grow rapidly at a sustained pace.

Raising reserve requirements 'may result in credit being rationed to more productive sectors of the economy, thereby weakening one ally -- productivity growth -- in the fight against inflation,' said Cornell University China expert Eswar Prasad.

In Wenzhou, an entrepreneurial center on China's eastern coast, bank lending has sharply slowed as the reserve ratio has climbed, says Zhou Wende, chairman of a Wenzhou trade association of smaller companies. He estimates that 70% of the group's members can't get loans, and those that do pay rates of 12% to 24% annually, after adding in various charges. Those who turn to private lenders, such as pawnshops or wealthy businessmen, rather than banks, pay rates of as much as 100% annually.

'Currently many companies are in a state of shutdown or half shutdown,' Mr. Zhou said.

China is wary of raising interest rates directly -- the preferred anti-inflation instrument in much of the world. Such increases work across the economy to slow activity, with less credit-worthy customers facing the toughest time, whatever the size of the companies. China's current benchmark one-year lending rate is 6.31%, about one percentage point higher than expected inflation, which is considered a relatively modest constraint to lending.

China has raised interest rates four times since October and most analysts expect only another one or two 0.25-percentage-point boosts.

Why the hesitation? Raising interest rates has a host of consequences that can damage the government, including increasing the cost to the central bank of the bonds it sells to 'sterilize' the massive inflow of dollars from abroad, to prevent them from sharply increasing the value of the yuan. In that operation, the People's Bank of China sells yuan bonds roughly equal to the amount of dollars coming into the country.

Essentially, says Lu Feng, Director of Peking University's China Macroeconomic Research Center, the PBOC faces a conflict of interest. If the central bank raises interest rates, it raises its own costs, which could produce losses. Mr. Lu said one possible solution is to have the Ministry of Finance create a special account to absorb foreign-exchange losses and also issue future sterilization bonds. That would free the central bank to conduct monetary policy without worrying about the effect on its balance sheet.

But Mr. Lu says that is a tough sell in China because it would constrain government spending decisions and force Beijing to recognize that its huge buildup of foreign-exchange reserves has a big economic downside. 'You'd have to accept that the previous policy of foreign-exchange accumulation is causing huge loses and needs a special rescue package,' Mr. Lu says. 'That may be hard to do.'

Raising interest rates also could harm China's huge state-owned banks, says Carl Walters, a former J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. senior executive in China who is a co-author of the book, 'Red Capitalism.' He estimates that 30% of the big state lenders' assets are invested in Chinese securities that are unprofitable but haven't been marked to market. Higher interest rates could worsen the problem. 'The interest-rate risk is huge,' said Mr. Walter.

Economists also say that Chinese leaders, many of whom were educated as engineers, are simply more comfortable tinkering with specific parts of the economy rather than giving broader sway to market forces, as represented by interest rates. Government officials, for instance, have leaned on domestic and multinational food and beverage producers to postpone increases.

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Lu Ting says the latest reserve-ratio increase 'is aimed at showing the public that they are doing something about inflation.' But, he says, 'The economic impact will be small, because the actual amount of monthly lending is controlled anyway by the PBOC.'