郑州搜房网新房:中国通胀加剧 强化紧缩预期

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国数据显示上月通胀加剧，让人进一步认为政府有可能继续收紧政策，尽管越来越普遍的迹象显示这一世界第二大经济体的增长已经在放缓。
国家统计局周二上午在北京公布，5月份消费价格指数较去年同期上涨5.5%，超过近期最高涨幅，即3月份的5.4%，并且是2008年7月份该指数上涨6.3%以来的最大涨幅。
一天以前，中国央行报告信贷增速大幅放缓。中国银行业5月份发放新增贷款5,516亿元（合851亿美元），低于4月份的7,396亿元，也低于经济学家预期。
信贷数据和低于预期的货币供应增长数据一样，都进一步说明，一系列旨在控制物价的加息等紧缩措施，已经开始在作为世界经济增长重要源泉的中国经济中扎根。部分大城市房价的下跌，已经形成冷却建筑活动的威胁。在过去，建筑业活动提振了中国的经济增长，并增加了铁矿石和铜等大宗商品的需求。
周二的数据呈现的放缓程度各不相同，工业产值基准指标在5月份增长13.3%，略低于4月份13.4%的增幅。但国家统计局数据显示，用于工厂、楼房建设的投资和其他固定资产投资呈现为加速，今年头五个月增长25.8%，高于1至4月份25.4%的增速。
分析人士说，居高不下的通胀数据可能会继续成为中国货币政策制定者的关注焦点。虽然经济有所放缓，但多数分析师预计中国经济今年将增长9%或更多。与此同时，通货膨胀已经成为导致公众日益不满的一个原因，让执着于维护社会稳定的中国政府感到担心。
所以，很多经济学家预计中国央行今年将至少再加息一次。
Chinese Inflation Accelerates
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China said inflation accelerated last month, reinforcing expectations that the government is likely to keep tightening despite widening signs that activity is already slowing in the world's No. 2 economy.
The consumer price index rose 5.5% in May from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics reported early Tuesday in Beijing. That outpaced the recent high of 5.4%, hit in March, and marked the fastest clip since the index rose 6.3% in July 2008.
The inflation reading came after China's central bank a day earlier reported a sharp slowdown in credit growth, with Chinese banks issuing 551.6 billion yuan ($85.1 billion) of new loans in May, down from 739.6 billion yuan in April and below economists' expectations.
The credit data, along with unexpectedly slow growth in the money supply, offered the latest sign that series of interest rate hikes and other tightening moves aimed at taming prices have started to take hold in China's economy─a major source of global growth. Already, a drop in housing prices in some big cities threatens to cool activity in construction, which has propelled China's expansion and fed demand for commodities such as iron ore and copper.
Tuesday's data also presented mixed signals on the pace of the slowdown, with the benchmark measure of industrial output increasing 13.3% in May, down slightly from a 13.4% rise in April. Investment in factories, building construction and other fixed-asset investment accelerated, however, rising 25.8% in the first five months, the statistics bureau said, from 25.4% pace in the January-April period.
The stubbornly high inflation reading is likely to remain the primary focus of China's monetary policymakers, analysts said. Despite the slowdown, most analysts still expect the economy to grow at 9% or faster this year. Inflation, meanwhile, has been a source of growing public anger that has worried a government obsessed with maintaining social stability.
As a result, many economists expect the People's Bank of China to raise interest rates at least once more this year.
Jason Dean
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