里约奥运会闭幕式日本:中国是如何依靠贸易政策战胜美国的

中国是怎样不正当地战胜美国的

China's manufacturing advantage over the U.S. is actually due to a complex array of unfair trade practices, all of which are illegal under free-trade rules.

中国在制造业上的优势，来源于一系列复杂而又不符合自由贸易规定的贸易惯例。

By Peter Navarro

作者：Peter Navarro

June 21, 2011

2011年6月21日

The American economy has been in trouble for more than a decade, and no amount of right-wing tax cuts or left-wing fiscal stimuli will solve the primary structural problem underpinning our slow growth and high unemployment. That problem is a massive, persistent trade deficit — most of it with China — that cuts the number of jobs created by nearly the number we need to keep America fully employed.

美国的经济已经陷入困境超过十年了，无论是右派的减税政策还是左派的财政刺激政策都没有起到根本的作用。因为我们的低增长率和高失业率的根源在于基本的结构问题。巨大而持久的贸易逆差使得美国无法达到充分就业，而这大部分来自于与中国的贸易。

To understand why huge U.S. trade deficits represent the taproot of the nation's economic woes, it's crucial to understand that four factors drive our gross domestic product: consumption, business investment, government spending and net exports. This discussion focuses on net exports.

要理解为什么美国的贸易逆差是国家经济的问题根源，关键要认识到促进国内生产总值的四个因素：消费、企业投资、政府支出和净出口值。我们在这里讨论的重点是净出口值。

Net exports represent the difference between how much we export and import. A trade deficit means net exports are negative, and that directly reduces both the GDP growth rate and rate of job creation.

净出口值代表总出口值和总进口值之间的差值，贸易逆差则意味着这个值是一个负数。它直接地降低了GDP的增长率和增加就业的机会。

America's trade deficit is costing us close to 1% of GDP growth a year at a loss of almost 1 million jobs annually. That's millions of jobs we have failed to create over the last decade; and if we had those jobs now, we wouldn't see continuing high unemployment numbers, padlocked houses under foreclosure and empty factories pushing up weeds.

美国的贸易逆差每年要拉低1%的GDP增长率，那可以解决一百万人的就业问题。十年来，因此损失的就业机会数以百万计。假如有了这些就业机会，我们现在就不会看见这么高的失业率、因丧失抵押品赎回权而紧锁的房屋、和杂草丛生的废弃工厂。

It follows that if we want to get America back to work, we need to sharply reduce our trade deficit. As a statistical matter, that means sharply reducing our trade deficit with China.

这样说来，如果我们要扭转现状，就必须要大幅度地减少贸易逆差。从统计得到的结果来看，这意味着大幅度减少我们与中国之间的贸易逆差。

Every business day, American consumers buy $1 billion more in Chinese exports than American manufacturers sell to China, and China alone accounts for about 70% of America's trade deficit in goods, excluding oil imports. This "Chinese import dependence" has led a democratic America to owe the largest communist nation in the world more than $1 trillion, while China holds more than $3 trillion in foreign reserves, most of them in U.S. dollars.

在每一个工作日，美国的消费者购买的从中国进口的商品的价值要比美国制造商销售到中国的多十亿。而在商品贸易上，不计石油进口，中国就占了美国贸易逆差的70%。这种“中国的进口依存”导致民主的美国亏欠世界上最大的共产主义国家超过一万亿。而中国持有超过三万亿的外汇储备，其中大部分是美元。

To put these dollar reserves in perspective, that's more than enough money for China to buy a controlling interest in every major company in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, including Alcoa, Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil and Wal-Mart, and still leave billions to spare.

更形象一点来说，中国用这些钱来购买道琼斯工业平均指数上的每一家主要公司——包括美国铝业、卡特彼勒、埃克森美孚和沃尔玛——的多数股权还绰绰有余，空闲资金还有数十亿之多。

So how can we eliminate, or at least drastically reduce, our trade deficit with China? For starters, we must puncture the myth that China's main manufacturing edge is solely its cheap labor. Indeed, while low labor costs are a factor, when you carefully research the biggest source of China's manufacturing advantage, it is actually a complex array of unfair trade practices, all of which are illegal under free-trade rules.

因此，我们要怎样消除，或至少大大地减少我们和中国之间的贸易逆差呢？首先，我们一定要打破中国在制作业的主要优势单单在于廉价劳动力上的误论。确实，廉价劳动力是一个重要因素，但如果你仔细地调查一番，就会发现中国最大的制造业优势来源实际上是一系列复杂的不公正贸易惯例。在自由贸易的规定下，这些都是不合法的。

The most potent of China's "weapons of job destruction" are an elaborate web of export subsidies; the blatant piracy of America's technologies and trade secrets; the counterfeiting of valuable brand names like Nike and Chevy; a cleverly manipulated and grossly undervalued currency; and the forced transfer of the technology of any American company wishing to operate on Chinese soil or sell into the Chinese market.

中国最强大的“销毁工作的武器”是：一张复杂精巧的出口补贴网；公然对美国的技术和商业秘密的盗版；对名牌，例如耐克和雪佛兰的仿冒；一种被巧妙地操纵着的、被严重低估的货币；以及对美国公司希望应用在中国或者销售到中国市场的技术的强迫转让。

Each of these unfair trade practices is expressly prohibited both by World Trade Organization rules as well as rules established by the U.S. government, e.g., the Treasury Department has sanctions against currency manipulation (which, alas, the Obama administration refuses to use against China despite campaign promises to do so).

这每一条贸易惯例都是不公正的，而且是被同时世界贸易组织和美国政府的法律明文禁止的。例如，美国财政部就有对货币操纵制裁措施。（哎呀，奥巴马政府虽然在竞选时承诺了这一点，但是上台后却拒绝对中国使用。）

In addition, there is the Chinese Communist Party's incredibly shortsighted willingness to trade tremendous environmental damage and a surfeit of workplace deaths and injuries for a few more pennies of production cost advantage, all because of ultra-lax regulatory standards. For example, according to the World Health Organization, almost 700,000 Chinese citizens die annually from the effects of air pollution — that's like losing everybody in Wyoming every year — while Chinese officials acknowledge more than 2,000 coal mining deaths annually, compared with fewer than 50 in the United States.

此外，中国共产党还极其目光短浅地用巨大的环境损坏和过量的工作场所的人员伤亡来换取极微薄的生产成本的利益。这一切都是因为极度松懈的监管标准。举个例子，根据世界卫生组织的统计，每年有接近700，000中国市民由于空气污染的影响而死亡——那是整个怀俄明州的居民数——而中国官员也承认每年有超过2000人因开采煤矿而死亡。美国每年只有不到50宗。

Make no mistake. All of these real economic weapons have led to the shutdown of thousands of American factories and turned millions of American workers into collateral damage, all under the false flag of so-called free trade.

别搞错了，这些都是实实在在的经济武器，并且已经导致美国成千上万的工厂倒闭，使数以百万计的美国工人遭受到了间接伤害。而这一切都是在所谓自由贸易的错误旗帜下发生的。

The second myth we must expose if we are to ever reverse the job-killing trade deficits we now run with China is the idea that free trade always benefits both countries. That doesn't hold true if one country cheats on the other. Instead, when a mercantilist China uses unfair trade practices to wage war on our manufacturing base, the American economy is the big loser.

如果我们想要扭转这和中国之间的、对人们就业造成巨大负面影响的贸易逆差，我们要揭发的第二个误论就是自由贸易对双方都总是有利的。这完全不适用于一个国家对另一个国家使诈的情况。而如果重商主义的中国用这些不公正的贸易惯例对我们的生产基地发动战争，美国经济将成为大输家。

Given America's structural problem with China and absent constructive trade reform, our economic prospects can only dim further. The presidential candidate who grasps that essential truth, which is becoming increasingly understood by much of the electorate, will be the one who wins in 2012. We need someone who can lead this country to a trade relationship with China founded on the American ideals of free and fair trade rather than a set of mercantilist and socialist trade policies that employ the Chinese masses at the expense of American workers.

考虑到美国和中国之间的结构性问题和缺乏积极的贸易改革，我们的经济前景相当黯淡。能够认清这个基本事实的总统候选人将会得到越来越多的选民支持，从而成为2012年美国总统大选的胜利者。我们需要一个能够在美国理想中的自由平等贸易基础上领导国家改变与中国的贸易关系的总统，而不是在一系列重商主义、社会主义的贸易政策下以美国工人的利益为代价满足中国群众的就业需求。

Peter Navarro is a business professor at UC Irvine, a CNBC contributor and the coauthor with Greg Autry of "Death by China: Confronting the Dragon — A Global Call to Action." 

Peter Navarro是加州大学尔湾分校的企业管理教授，同时也是美国全国广播公司财经频道的撰稿者。他与Greg Autry合著了《对抗中国——一个全球性的号召》。

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