重庆科技咨询业协会:US: No Formal Commitment To Defend Taiwan

来源：百度文库 编辑：九乡新闻网 时间：2024/07/07 13:21:21

US: No Formal Commitment To Defend Taiwan

See how Justin Logan argues why US should not give formal commitment to defend Taiwan --

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2011-6-27 08:43

Chinese President Hu Jintao (L) and US President Barack Obama(R)


On June 23 I participated in an event sponsored by the Center for National Policy about “Arming Taiwan.” (Taipei Times writeup here.) Also participating were Joe Bosco, who worked as a China desk officer in the Pentagon of Bush the Younger, and Rupert Hammond-Chambers of the US-Taiwan Business Council.



My remarks were focused fairly narrowly on the shifting cross-strait military balance and Taiwan’s role in Taiwan’s defense, but in conclusion I urged two broad changes, one for Washington and another for Taiwan.



For Washington, I argued that those who believe—as I do—that East Asia is likely to be the most important economic, political and military region of the world in coming decades need to make that argument in the face of a Beltway that is monomaniacally focused on nation-building in the Islamic world and fiddling around in the Middle East more generally.



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US arm sale to Taiwan

For Taiwan, I argued that what is needed is a “wholesale change in national attitude on the island about the threat posed by the Chinese Mainland (PRC) and the policies that should be embraced in order to influence the outcome.” As the Times noted in its writeup, however, I suggested, based on the economic theory of alliances, that this change in Taiwan was unlikely to happen as long as Washington maintains the status quo in terms of its policy.



I wanted to comment on one suggestion that Joe Bosco made in his remarks: that the United States should make a formal commitment to defend Taiwan.



Bosco argued that Washington should do so and could simply wave off the PRC, informing them that “prudent choice for China” would be to “learn to get along with its neighbors and respect the international norm.” (It was not clear from his remarks whether there would be any limit to that commitment or whether Bosco would use the U.S. military to defend Taiwan even if conflict was precipitated by, say, a formal declaration of independence in Taiwan.)


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Liberty's setting fire to the Taiwan Dove?


I think this is extraordinarily risky. Bosco was right to point out that there are downsides to our policy of “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan. For my part, I believe that what exists at the present is close to the opposite of how you would want ambiguity to work. In the context of Taiwan, ambiguity would be effective if the PRC believed it was likely that Washington would come to Taipei’s defense and Taipei feared we would not do so. Such perceptions should induce caution on both sides and allow the status quo to persist. In my view, based on Taiwan’s military posture and Beijing’s behavior, something close to the opposite is coming to exist: Beijing increasingly doubts America’s willingness to fight over Taiwan and Taiwan appears to firmly believe that we would do so.



This is a recipe for trouble. But the solution to the problems of ambiguity is not necessarily to make much more certain the prospect of conflict. Bosco rejected the idea that a formal commitment to defend Taiwan would make war likely. He seemed to believe that the Chinese Mainland (PRC) would have no choice but to shrug its shoulders and perhaps send a diplomatic demarche or two in response.



Bosco’s thinking on the subject seems to me fairly representative of people working on China at the Pentagon. It is one thing to believe that the United States and China may be headed for trouble. It is another thing entirely to propose policy steps that would threaten to plunge the two countries headlong into near-term conflict, without even acknowledging that that is the likely consequence of the policy being proposed.




Justin Logan. Article published on The National Interest

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