Gartner Adds Big Data, Gamification, and Internet of Things to Its Hype Cycle

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Gartneris once again taking a look at the "hype cycle" for technologies andtrying to assess where technologies lie along the bumpy road fromtechnology trigger to productivity. This year, Gartner is adding big data, Internet of Things, gamification and consumerizationto the Hype Cycle that weren't present in 2010. According to Gartner,private cloud computing has reached the peak level of hype, andcloud/Web platforms are slipping into the "trough of disillusionment" inthe face of Platform as a Service (PaaS).

For the uninitiated, Gartner tracks technologies through a lifecyclethat begins with a technology trigger through the plateau ofproductivity. The idea is that companies can use the assessments todecide whether to invest in specific technologies.

The results this year? Gartner puts private clouds at the peak ofinflated expectations, cloud computing on the downside of the peakheaded towards the trough, and cloud/Web platforms almost at the bottomof the trough of disillusionment. Consumerization has skipped throughthe hype cycle entirely and is already at the "slope of enlightenment"according to report authors Jackie Fenn and Hung LeHong, despite justbeing added to Gartner's tracking. Private clouds were just on thedividing line from tech trigger to peak in the 2010 report.

Now what does all that mean? Just past the peak of the hype cycle iswhen a technology is being adopted by more than the early adopter crowd.Immediately after that stage is when bad press begins. (Why? Becausethe less enthusiastic crowd starts finding out what's wrong with thetechnology, or how it didn't quite meet their expectations set by theearly adopters.) According to Gartner, a technology that's in the troughof disillusionment is still sparsely adopted - less than 5% of theaudience has fully adopted a technology while there. Once 20% to 30% ofthe audience has adopted a technology, Gartner considers it at theplateau of productivity.

As far as Gartner's assessment of the various technologies, it looksabout right. I suspect that "big data" will mature very quickly, as it'san area that's moving fast and showing very little disappointment. Notethat all of the technologies that Gartner is newly covering this yearhave been well-covered on ReadWriteWeb for some time.

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