坚守股市阵地Hold your ground in a two-speed world

It has been my view for some time that we are living in a two-speed world. In this world, the different rates of growth of developed and developing economies will increasingly make investing in emerging markets relatively attractive.

一段时间以来，我一直认为我们生活在一个“双速”世界里。在这个世界中，发达国家和发展中国家之间的不同增长速度，将越来越使得投资于新兴市场变得更具吸引力。

Growth in the developed world, especially in the US and Europe, will continue to be held back by policymakers’ attempts to restore the health of economies in which sovereign debt spiralled during the financial crisis.

发达国家的经济增长，尤其是美国和欧洲的经济增长，将继续受到政策制定者一项努力的拖累——政策制定者正努力推动那些在金融危机期间主权债务激增的经济体恢复健康。

In these countries, consumers remain over-leveraged and the housing market continues to be weak. I am looking for developed world growth rates of about 2 per cent rather than the 3-4 per cent we have generally experienced in the past.

在这些经济体中，消费者的负债率依然过高，住房市场仍旧疲软。我预期发达国家的增长率将在2%左右，而不是我们以前通常见到的3%至4%。

Emerging markets cannot expect to be unaffected by this lower growth, particularly those that are dependent on exports or commodity prices. However, in a generally low-growth world, their higher relative growth will look very appealing.

我们不能指望新兴市场不受这种低增长的影响，尤其是那些依赖出口或深受大宗商品价格影响的国家。然而，在一个普遍低增长的世界里，它们相对较高的增长率将非常具有吸引力。

A number of commentators is talking about “double dips” and a return to recession in the developed world. I think this is unlikely given the backdrop of low interest rates and an absence of the conditions that normally precede recessions. Indeed, most of the recession-predicting models that have been helpful to me in the past still indicate that the probability of a renewed slump in the west is low.

一些评论人士正在谈论发达国家会出现“双底”和再次陷入衰退。我认为这不太可能发生，因为利率很低，并且现在未出现任何通常出现在衰退之前的征兆。实际上，大多数过去曾给予我很大帮助的衰退预测模型都仍然显示，西方再次陷入衰退的可能性很小。

So what should investors make of the extreme stock market conditions of the past week or so?

那么，投资者应该如何解读过去一周左右股市出现的极端情况呢？

Firstly, never underestimate the ability of markets to confound investors’ expectations. If markets simply repeated past patterns, investors would become better and better at anticipating their movements. The majority, by definition, cannot successfully predict markets.

首先，永远不要低估市场挫败投资者预期的能力。如果市场只是重复过去的模式，投资者就能越来越准确地预测市场走势。而大多数人显然并不能成功预测市场走势。

Secondly, the amount of money invested on a very short-term basis has increased significantly in recent years. I believe these flows magnify market movements and produce greater short-term volatility. I’m afraid we will have to get used to markets that are more volatile than in the past.

其次，最近几年，做超短线投资的资金大幅增加。我认为这些资金放大了市场波动，加剧了短期波动性。恐怕我们将不得不习惯比过去更加变化无常的市场。

If investors cannot tolerate this volatility, then maybe they would be better not to own equities. However, the majority of the technical, sentiment and valuation indicators that I look at suggest that this is not a time to be shaken out of markets but to hold one’s ground.

如果投资者不能忍受这种波动，那么他们大概最好不要持有股票。但是，根据我所观察的技术、市场情绪和估值指标，现在并不是逃离股市的时候，而是坚守阵地的时候。

With hindsight, I believe investors will see that this week’s movements will have presented one of the more attractive long-term entry points for equities.

我相信投资者以后回头想来将能看出，上周的市场走势提供了一个更具吸引力的长期投资入市点。

I don’t think I can add a lot to the debate around the downgrade of US debt by Standard & Poor’s other than to say that this formal confirmation of the deterioration in the finances of the US is not a big surprise.

至于标准普尔(Standard & Poor’s)调降美国国债评级一事，我除了说这一对美国财政状况恶化的正式确认并不太出人意料以外，没有什么别的好说的。

Rating agency downgrades often confirm what most investors already know. I don’t think the relative attraction of US Treasuries has been much changed and I must say that I am more sanguine about the US outlook than Europe’s.

评级机构下调评级通常只是对大部分投资者已知晓情况的确认。我不认为美国国债的相对吸引力受到多大影响，而且必须指出，我对美国前景的展望比对欧洲的乐观。

The euro experiment is a financial disaster and there is no easy or obvious solution to Europe’s problems.

欧元试验是一场金融灾难，并且欧洲的问题没有简单或者显而易见的解决方案。

I agree with others that a necessary first step is the recapitalisation of many European banks, so that they can take the writedowns they need to on their holdings of peripheral European sovereign debt. Some sort of fund needs to be set up to rebuild the equity of these banks.

我同意一些人的观点，即第一步应该对许多欧洲银行进行资本重组，这样它们才能对所持欧洲外围国家主权债务进行必要的减记。需要设立某种基金来重组这些银行的股权。

Also a type of “Brady” plan lookalike is needed to solve the debt problems of these countries. How long the German electorate will continue to foot the bill for all of this is questionable. I think we should not rule out the possibility, before the decade is out, of the rebirth of currencies such as the drachma, lira and peseta.

还需要某种类似于“布雷迪”(Brady)计划的方案，来解决这些国家的债务问题。问题是，德国选民还愿在多长的时间内为这一切埋单。我认为，不应该排除德拉克马、里拉和比塞塔等货币在2020年前复活的可能性。

The trouble with emerging markets is that, so far, their stock markets have not decoupled and, in fact, have tended to underperform during periods of risk-aversion.

新兴市场的麻烦在于，到目前为止，它们的股市尚未与发达国家股市脱钩，而且实际上往往在避险情绪主导市场时期表现得比发达国家股市更加糟糕。

I believe that this will change over the next few years and I continue to expect a flow of money from investors in the developed world into emerging markets.

我相信这种情况在未来几年会发生变化，并仍预期发达国家投资者会把资金投向新兴市场。

In particular, I remain of the view that China, despite its own challenges, looks to be one of the better places to invest. As a soft landing in China becomes the majority view, its relative performance will improve.

特别要指出的是，我仍认为，尽管中国自身存在种种问题，但它依然是比较理想的投资目的地之一。随着中国经济软着陆成为大多数人的观点，其股市的相对表现将会改善。

What else besides a decent exposure to emerging markets should investors look for in this scenario? Companies that can show steady predictable growth in a low-growth world will, I think, be attractive. This includes many high-quality, larger developed-world stocks, a number of which have dividend yields well above the relevant government bond yield.

在当前情况下，除了保留可观的新兴市场敞口以外，投资者还应该寻找什么样的机会呢？我认为，能够在低增长世界中显示出稳定增长预期的公司是具有吸引力的。这包括许多发达国家的大盘优质股，其中一些股票的股息率远高于相应国家的国债收益率。

In a low interest rate environment, I think these could become very valuable and, at some stage, be rewarded with much higher valuations.

在低利率环境下，我认为这些股票会变得很有价值；有朝一日，这些股票的估值将会大幅攀升，给投资者带来回报。

In summary, I don’t see any of the normal warning signs that mark the end of a bull trend. It may seem strange (and perhaps foolhardy!) to be talking about a continuing bull market after the large falls of the past week but that is still my view – provided we see a recovery in markets over the next few weeks.

总之，我没有观察到任何表明牛市已经到头的常规警报信号。在上周大跌之后谈论牛市将持续可能显得很奇怪（大概还显得很鲁莽！），但这仍然是我的观点——前提是市场能在未来几周出现一波回升。