香港那有卖日货的店:Lex专栏：人民币升值波折难免
How frustrating. Two markets for the same asset – the renminbi – have produced a classic arbitrage, but only a handful of companies can take advantage of it. The dollar is worth Rmb6.398 in the onshore, tightly controlled market. In Hong Kong’s fast-growing offshore centre, it has spiked to Rmb6.457. The spread between the two rates has narrowed slightly from a record last week of 1.9 per cent but at 0.9 per cent, it is well above its 0.3 per cent average for this year.
真是让人郁闷。同一种资产（人民币）的两个市场涌现了经典的套利机会，但只有寥寥数家公司能够利用这种机会。在受到严格管控的在岸市场，1美元兑6.398元人民币。而在香港这个快速增长的离岸中心，1美元能换到6.457元人民币。这两种汇率之间的利差，已从上周1.9%的创纪录水平略有收窄，但仍达到0.9%，远高于今年0.3%的平均值。
The question for nearly everyone is “where next” for the offshore currency since only companies with strict documentation proving a business need can use the arbitrage to repatriate offshore renminbi. The general move partially mirrors the scramble back to dollars seen elsewhere, notably in the Korean won and Brazilian real. Add to this growing investor fears that China’s own slowdown is quickening pace and there is reason to suspect the new gap could persist for some time.
对几乎所有人来说，问题是离岸汇率“下一步走向何处”，因为只有达到严格的文件要求、证明自己有业务需要的公司，才能利用这一套利机会、汇回离岸人民币资金。从总体看，这一动向一定程度上映射出了其它地方出现的一窝蜂转回美元的趋势——尤其是韩元和巴西里亚尔。这还不算，投资者越来越担心中国经济本身的放缓正在加速，因此，人们有理由怀疑，新的汇率差别可能会持续一段时间。
More specifically and perhaps more alarmingly, there is a suspicion that Beijing could freeze the renminbi as it did in July 2008, to shelter its domestic markets from the rising market turmoil. By and large, this worked. There are even suggestions that this time, it could force the renminbi lower to offset the dollar’s gains. This seems much less likely. Even in 2008 as its exports cratered and the dollar soared, it stuck with a freeze, not a revaluation.
更具体地说——或许也更令人震惊的是——人们怀疑北京方面可能像它在2008年7月所做的那样，冻结人民币汇率，以保护国内市场不受愈演愈烈的市场动荡的冲击。总体而言，这种做法起到了作用。甚至有人提出，这一次北京方面可能压低人民币汇率，以抵消美元的升幅。这种可能性似乎要小得多。即便在2008年中国出口崩盘、美元飙升之际，北京方面也坚持冻结（而非调整）人民币汇率。
On Tuesday morning China set its renminbi midpoint at 6.376, its strongest since it began allowing gradual appreciation in 2005. Even though it ended the day at 6.398, which it first reached in mid-August, this would be an odd signal to send if it were seriously considering a devaluation. Best then to read the still-wide spread as a timely reminder that even the surest of long-term bets cannot be relied on to move in a straight line.
周二上午，中国将人民币汇率中间价定在1美元兑6.376元人民币，这是2005年中国开始允许人民币逐渐升值以来的最高点。尽管当日收盘时1美元兑6.398元人民币（人民币汇率在8月中旬首次达到这一水平），如果说中国政府在认真考虑让人民币贬值的做法，设定上述中间价将发出一个奇怪的信号。因此，最好将仍然很大的利差视为一个及时的提醒：即便是对最有把握的长期押注，也不能指望它沿着一条直线前进。