Lex专栏：中国股市暴跌探秘 Chinapathy

Theorists are out in force to find reasons for the recent slump in Chinese equities: slowing industrial production, unrestrained inflation, tightened monetary policy. Among the best explanations, though, is simple investor apathy.

理论家们大举出动，为中国股市最近的暴跌寻找原因：工业生产不断放缓，通胀失控，货币政策收紧……然而，最佳解释之一只是投资者缺乏兴趣。

The mainland market has always been dominated by individual investors, who own the great majority of the 159m registered trading accounts. Yet the proportion of active accounts – those that made at least one trade in the past week – has steadily fallen, from an average 14 per cent in 2009 to 9.5 per cent so far this year. That growing indifference seems to have underpinned a longer-term trend. Only four of 90 main markets have done worse than Shanghai since the beginning of 2010 in local currency terms. The forward price/earnings ratio is now near a five-year low.

中国内地股市向来是由散户主导——他们占到了1.59亿开户账户的绝大多数。然而，活跃账户——在过去一周至少交易一次的账户——的比例从2009年的平均14%，稳步降至今年迄今为止的9.5%。股民们越来越缺乏兴趣，似乎支持了一种更长期的趋势。2010年年初以来，在90个主要市场中，只有4个市场的表现弱于上海股市（以本币计算）。目前上海市场的预期市盈率接近5年来的低点。

Restoring excitement will not be easy. If trendy companies such as Renren were to stay at home, perhaps, rather than list in New York, they might help to rebalance a market where the state-dominated finance and mining sectors account for almost all of the most-traded stocks. Listed companies might also disgorge more profits: among the 60 per cent of stocks that pay dividends, pay-out ratios average just 30 per cent. Boosting this, while essentially meaningless, would at least attract some attention. Perhaps the regulator could allow more foreign inflows, too. Overseas funds have been allocated a cumulative $19bn of A-shares since 2003, equivalent to less than 1 per cent of the current tradable market cap.

恢复投资者的兴趣并非易事。如果人人网(Renren)等引领潮流的公司没有前往纽约、而是在国内上市，或许有助于重新平衡中国市场。在这个市场中，交易最活跃的股票几乎都是政府主导的金融和矿业公司。上市公司或许需要将更多的利润回报股民：只有60%的上市公司支付股息，派息率平均只有30%。提高派息的做法尽管本质上毫无意义，但至少会吸引某些注意力。监管机构或许还可以允许更多的外资流入。自2003年以来，中国政府累计允许190亿美元的海外资金投资A股，不到目前可交易市值的1%。

As none of this is likely to happen, though, the most obvious catalyst is a correction in property – the only other approved outlet for surplus private capital seeking a real return. While stocks have stood still for the past two years, the average new-build apartment has gained about 15 per cent in nominal price appreciation alone. Rapidly expanding home loan books at the big banks suggest the typical

不过，由于上述情况都不太可能发生，最明显的催化剂是房地产市场的调整——房地产是除了股市以外，中国寻求真实回报的私人盈余资本唯一获准的投资渠道。在过去两年股市低迷的时候，新建公寓平均价格仅在名义上就增长了15%左右。中国大银行发放的住房贷款迅速增长表明，典型的A股股民不需要鼓励。在房地产市场疲弱之前，股市将不会走强。

A-share punter has needed little encouragement. Until housing weakens, stocks will not strengthen.

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析