分析：温州个人境外投资试点前景Failed equity plan dogs investing pilot

A pilot project announced on Monday by the Chinese city of Wenzhou to allow its residents to make overseas investments could be a big step towards lifting capital account controls and making the Chinese currency more convertible. However, when something similar was tried once before it failed completely.

本周一，温州市宣布了一个试点项目，允许本市居民进行境外直接投资。这或许是中国朝着取消资本账户管制和实现人民币更自由兑换迈出的一大步。不过，中国过去曾进行过一次类似尝试，结果彻底失败。

In August 2007, China’s foreign exchange regulator announced a plan to allow domestic investors to buy stocks in the self-governed territory of Hong Kong, in what amounted to a de facto opening of the country’s closed capital account.

2007年8月，中国国家外汇管理局(SAFE)宣布了一项计划，允许内地投资者在香港特别行政区购买股票，这相当于在事实上开放了一直处于关闭状态的中国资本账户。

In just over a week, the benchmark Hong Kong stock index soared more than 11 per cent to 24,000 points and within two months it had broken through the 30,000 mark as a result of the so-called “Hong Kong equity through-train” plan.

这项所谓的“港股直通车”计划宣布后仅仅一周，香港基准股指已大涨逾11%，达到24000点，而不到两个月，便又突破30000点关口。

That was when it became apparent that the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe) had come up with the plan without properly consulting other government departments or even the authorities in Hong Kong, a former British colony that remains outside Chinese capital controls and that has a separate, globally integrated financial system.

到那时，人们才发现，原来外管局出台这项计划时并没有与其它政府部门乃至香港当局进行妥善磋商。香港曾经是英国殖民地，目前依然不受中国资本管控限制，并拥有一套独立的、融入全球架构的金融体系。

The project was unceremoniously dumped and Chinese investors went back to speculating in the domestic real estate market.

这个项目以不体面的方式被叫停，而中国投资者又重回国内房地产市场进行投机。

More than three years after the through-train project went off the rails, the eastern Chinese city of Wenzhou has launched its own watered-down version of capital account liberalisation. Under the pilot, residents from the wealthy city of about 8m will be able to invest up to $200m a year overseas.

港股直通车脱轨3年多以后，中国东部有着800万人口的富裕城市温州又推出了自己的、打了一点折扣的资本账户开放措施。根据试点方案，温州市民每年最多可在境外投资2亿美元。

Perhaps still smarting from the humiliation of the cancelled scheme, the foreign exchange regulator has refused to make any public comment at all about the Wenzhou plan.

或许是因为直通车计划遭取消导致的羞辱感还未消退，这次外管局拒绝就温州市的方案进行任何公开置评。

But Chinese officials and academics say the pilot clearly has Safe’s blessing and is consistent with calls from China’s central bank governor and other senior officials for greater liberalisation of the capital account and for greater convertibility of the renminbi.

但中国政府官员与学者均表示，该试点方案显然得到了外管局的首肯，而且与中国央行行长及其他高层官员要求进一步开放资本账户和实现人民币更自由兑换的呼声相一致。

“The government is currently encouraging more convertibility of the Rmb on the capital account and this pilot project sends a powerful signal,” said Ding Zhijie, dean of finance at Beijing’s University of International Business and Economics.

北京对外经济贸易大学(UIBE)金融学院院长丁志杰教授表示：“政府目前正鼓励人民币在资本账户方面实现更自由兑换，这个试点项目传递出了一个强有力的信号。”

Analysts say the central government and regulatory bodies that opposed and ultimately scuppered the 2007 plan are likely to be more agnostic about the pilot, not least because Wenzhou’s entrepreneurs are already evading capital account controls to make worldwide investments.

分析人士表示，反对并最终叫停2007年计划的中央政府与监管机构，很可能会对温州市的试点方案持更模棱两可的立场。很重要的一个原因是，温州商人已经绕过资本账户管制在全球展开投资了。

“Private overseas investment by Wenzhou citizens have been happening for quite a long time and so this plan is partly aimed at regulating and legalising an existing practice,” Professor Ding said.

“温州市民进行个人境外投资已经有相当长时间了，因此该方案的目的之一是规范现有投资行为，使其合法化，”丁志杰教授表示。

Wenzhou is legendary in China as a hotbed of capitalism and entrepreneurial spirit that managed to survive the Maoist era thanks to its isolation and its location on the coast across the Straits from Taiwan, which left it vulnerable to invasion and hence unsuitable for heavy industry.

温州因被誉为资本主义和创业精神的温床而闻名于中国。由于其交通闭塞、与台湾隔海相望，温州人的创业精神即使在毛泽东时代也依然存在。温州的地理位置让其很难抵御入侵，因此不适宜发展重工业。

In the absence of a state-controlled industrial base the city’s residents were left to build up the economy and so created the “Wenzhou Model”, based on privately owned light manufacturing and an informal banking system.

由于温州缺少国有工业基地，温州人只得自行发展经济，并由此创建了立足于私有轻型制造业和民间银行业体系的“温州模式”。

Today, about 70 per cent of the world’s cigarette lighters are made in the city. The region also produces most of the world’s zips, light switches, hinges and sex toys.

现如今，全球约70%的打火机都产自温州。这里还为全球供应了大部分拉链、电灯开关、合页和成人用品。

Zhou Dawen, head of the Wenzhou SME Business Development and Promotion Association, said about 500 enterprises from the city now operated abroad, along with more than 800,000 Wenzhou natives. According to Mr Zhou, Wenzhou investors have poured more than Rmb5bn into Dubai.

温州市中小企业发展促进会会长周德文表示，目前温州约有500家企业和80多万温州人在海外做生意。据周德文称，温州投资者对迪拜的投资总额超过50亿元人民币。

While some of this has been approved investment, government acknowledges that a large portion has left Chinese shores through unauthorised channels.

尽管其中某些投资得到了批准，但政府承认，还有很大一部分投资是通过未经批准的渠道离境的。

“There is already at least tens of billions of private Chinese capital abroad and if this pilot project in Wenzhou is successful it could be rolled out across the country quite quickly,” said Prof Ding.

丁志杰教授表示：“中国已至少有数百亿的个人资本流出境外，如果温州试点项目取得成功，很快就会推广到全国