贵金属纪念币:Singapore and Taiwan （新加坡和台湾）

Like Hamlet's gravedigger, markets are inured to grief. Japanese indices barely flinched on Wednesday when the world's second biggest economy was revealed to have shrunk 4 per cent quarter on quarter. Yesterday, a 10 per cent year-on-year fall in Singapore's first-quarter gross domestic product and a similar drop in Taiwan's output – the two biggest falls in Asia – hardly registered. The Straits Times index broke stride a little; the Taiex was actually up.
This is Hedonomics, where all news is good news. Three months ago, investors were girding themselves for another Great Depression; Asian equities have since put on almost 60 per cent. Asian bonds, as measured by JPMorgan's total return index of dollar-denominated debt, are back to pre-Lehman levels. Companies, too, are exhibiting V-shaped behaviour: this week, Taiwan Semiconductor said it would rehire hundreds of staff it fired late last year while Mazda reversed plans to impose a three-day week at its main plant in Japan.
It is entirely possible that markets overshot in March. But gloomy data should retain the power to unnerve. Singapore's quarter-on-quarter decline of 15 per cent, for example, was only fractionally better than the 16 per cent fourth-quarter fall. In Taiwan, where markets are still infused with cross-strait euphoria, the yearly GDP fall was the worst on record. A report today may show that joblessness has never been higher.
Morgan Stanley's explanation for the rally in risky assets looks most likely: markets are being swamped by a wall of money unleashed by governments and central banks, causing a rerun of the speculation that drove indices ever higher two years ago. At some point, this must drain away, leaving fundamentals to fend for themselves. The trigger in Asia could be Chinese PMI data: recent unexpected softness in steel and electricity output data suggests that the May reading could slip back below 50. If the hope is artificial, the disappointment is likely to be real.
正如《哈姆雷特》(Hamlet)中的掘墓人一样，市场对不幸已经麻木。周三传出世界第二大经济体日本第一季度经济环比萎缩4%的消息，而日本股市却几乎没有下跌。昨日，新加坡第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)同比萎缩10%、及台湾经济出现类似幅度萎缩的消息——这是亚洲经济萎缩幅度最大的两个地区——也没有引起多大关注。海峡时报指数(Straits Times Index)小幅下挫；台湾证交所加权指数(Taiex)还出现了上涨。
这是幸福学(Hedonomics)的理论：所有消息都是好消息。三个月前，投资者还在勒紧裤带准备迎接另一场大萧条(Great Depression)；此后亚洲股市却累计上涨近60%。摩根大通(JPMorgan)美元债券收益指数显示，亚洲债券收益已经回归雷曼兄弟(Lehman)破产前的水平。企业行为也呈现出V型形态：本周台湾积体电路制造股份有限公司（Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co，简称：台积电）表示，将重新聘用去年解雇的数百名员工，而马自达(Mazda)也取消了在日本主要工厂实施每周3天工作日的计划。
3月份股市完全可能是上涨过度。但惨淡的经济数据应仍有震慑力。例如，新加坡第一季度近15%的环比降幅，仅略好于去年第四季度16%的降幅。台湾市场依然沉浸在台海关系改善的欣喜中，但GDP的同比萎缩幅度是有记录以来最糟糕的。将于今日公布的一份报告或许还会显示，失业率也升至前所未有的高点。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)对风险资产出现反弹的解释似乎最合情理：市场被各国政府和央行释放出的巨额资金冲昏了头脑，导致两年前不断推高股指的投机活动再次上演。总有一天，这些资金会消耗殆尽，只留下基本面因素来左右市场。在亚洲，这个触发点可能是中国采购经理人指数(PMI)的公布：近来钢铁与电力产量出现意想不到的疲软，意味着5月份的数据可能会跌破50。如果说希望是人为制造的，那么失望可能就是货真价实的。