邪影本纪txt下载奇书网:中国的“自杀式货币政策”

2011年 06月 08日 14:27
中国的“自杀式货币政策”
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国兴业银行(Soc Gen)的反潮流人物格莱斯(Dylan Grice)告诫说，中国决策者试图消除经济的大起大落，殊不知，他们正骑在一只饥饿难耐的大老虎背上，而当其不可避免地失去对这只猛虎的控制时，老虎不仅会吃掉他们，还将吞噬整个世界。格莱斯写道：
“要想了解中国的自杀式货币政策正在引发多大的经济扭曲，看看路透社(Reuters)上周的报道便知。报道称，中国中央政府已同意给地方政府提供多达 4,630亿美元的救助资金，经GDP调整后，相当于大约1.5个问题资产救助计划(TARP)拨付的资金。这是迄今为止显示中国‘通过镇压手段来实现工业化’的最突出证据。然而，过往的大量经验已明确显示，镇压只能换来短期稳定，而付出的代价却是形势的长期脆弱。世界应对此感到担心。”
格莱斯继续写道：“我目前正坐在横跨大西洋的飞机上。假设机组人员不知何故突然丧失行为能力，而人们又推选我驾驶飞机送大家抵达波士顿，那么我会牢牢抓住操纵杆。但因为我不知控制操纵杆会产生什么效果，我仍然控制不了飞机。经济机器也是一样，没人真正知道它如何运作，至少对如何消除其自然波动不得要领。我不知，你不知，全球各国的央行行长不知，而那些身穿灰色西装、‘掌控’中国经济的决策者亦不知情。”
In their efforts to smooth out their economy’s ups and downs China’s policy makers are riding a huge and hungry tiger that will eat them and the world when they inevitably lose control of it, warns Soc Gen in-house iconoclast Dylan Grice:
For an idea of the magnitude of the distortions China’s suicidal monetary policy is causing, look no further than the report on Reuters last week that China’s central government has agreed to bail out local governments by as much as $463bn, or around one-and-a-half TARPs when adjusted for GDP. This is the starkest evidence yet of China’s ‘industrialisation by suppression.’ Yet numerous past experiences have clearly demonstrated suppression buys only short-run stability at the cost of long-run fragility. The world should be worried.
I'm writing this on a plane half way across the Atlantic. If the crew were somehow simultaneously incapacitated and I ended up being nominated to try and fly us to Boston, I’d have tight control over the levers too. But since I have no idea what effect the levers have, I’d still have no control over the machine. The economic machine is no different. No one really knows how it works, at least not with the precision required to smooth out its natural fluctuations. I don’t, you don’t, our central bankers don’t, and ‘the men in grey suits’ who ‘control’ China’s economy don’t either.