郝章新拟任市政法委:澳元不惧中国紧缩 Australia and China

Australia’s reliance on Chinese growth is so well established that even a pet shop’s talking birds can recite trade patterns, Glenn Stevens, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s governor, says. He was only half joking. Australia is booming thanks to China’s insatiable appetite for its raw materials.

澳大利亚对中国增长的依赖根深蒂固，就连宠物店里的八哥都能复述两国之间的贸易模式——澳大利亚央行行长格伦?史蒂文斯(Glenn Stevens)这句话并不完全是开玩笑。中国对澳大利亚原材料难以餍足的需求，成就了后者的经济繁荣。

This has made the Aussie dollar/US dollar exchange rate one of the most-traded currency pairs as a proxy for bets on China – whose own currency is not freely traded.

因此，澳元兑美元汇率成为了交投最为活跃的汇率之一，被投资者作为押注中国的替代工具——因为中国自己的货币无法自由交易。

There is a solid basis for such trades. The annual change in the Aussie dollar’s value against the US dollar looks very like the annual change in Chinese economic growth over the past 10 years.

此种交易有着坚实的基础。在过去10年中，澳元相对于美元价值的年度变化，与中国经济增长的年度变化极为相似。

This link looks tenuous at the moment: even as China frantically tries to slow the economy, the Aussie has held on to most of its gains since April. That might reflect hopes – partially supported by data this week – that China’s inflation can be brought under control without hurting growth too badly. True, the Aussie has dropped from its peak of $1.096, but it is still at $1.058, up from near parity in January.

眼下二者的关联有些薄弱：就在中国想方设法降低经济增速之际，澳元仍保持着4月份以来的大部分涨幅。这或许反映了投资者的一种希望——一定程度上得到了本周数据的支持——即中国有望在不太多损及经济增长的情况下控制住通胀。诚然，澳元汇率已从1澳元兑1.096美元的高位跌落，但目前仍处于1.058美元的点位，而1月份这两种货币基本是平价。

A better explanation may lie elsewhere. Australia is tied to China by commodity exports. Sure enough, the Aussie moves with the price of industrial metals. But it has moved even more closely with global equities since the start of 2009 as the Aussie became the perfect “risk on” trade.

从其他方面或许可以找到更好的解释。澳大利亚通过大宗商品出口与中国紧密相联。无疑，澳元会随工业金属价格而波动。然而，自2009年年初以来，澳元与全球股市走势的关联更加紧密，因为澳元成了理想的“冒险型”交易品种。

Traders who want to bet on China’s growth relative to the US might be better off with the Aussie/Canadian loonie exchange rate, which excludes much of the risk on/risk off effect, but keeps exposure to the US economy via Canada.

那些想要押注于中国相对美国的经济增长的交易员，或许不如选择澳元兑加元汇率。因为这既可以消除冒险/避险效应的大部分影响，同时又通过加拿大，保持了对美国经济的敞口。

Those sticking to the Aussie/ greenback rate should be wary. The Aussie is the third most overvalued currency in purchasing power parity terms. It is pricing in rising Chinese growth as Beijing tightens. And it has fallen much less than commodities or equities after tracking them all the way up. There is no way round it: the Aussie looks expensive.

那些坚守澳元兑美元汇率的人务必要小心。按购买力平价衡量，澳元是当今第三大高估货币。当中国政府收紧货币政策之际，澳元走势却反映中国经济要不断加速。此外，在跟随大宗商品和股市一路上扬之后，澳元的回落幅度远不及前两者。一个无法回避的事实是：澳元看起来有些高估。