青岛市中医院:中国遭遇产能过剩

2011年 09月 01日 11:58中国遭遇产能过剩
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中国经济巨轮终于撞上产能过剩的冰山了吗？

从中国远洋控股股份有限公司(China Cosco HoldingsCo.)的问题来看，麻烦就在前面。作为大型国有航运企业，中国远洋在世界各地签有租借船舶用以运输铁矿石、煤炭和粮食的长期合同。很多合同都是在大宗商品市场的繁荣时期签署的，当时租借一艘好望角型船的价格达到了每天20万美元左右。现在的价格是每天1万美元。这些合同的后果已经体现在中国远洋的利润上面：今年上半年该公司亏损4.2亿美元。

讽刺的是，租船费的大幅下降一定程度上也是因为中国的原因造成的。从2003年到2008年，中国铁矿石进口量年均增长26%。咨询公司Jefferies航运专家梁民(JohnsonLeung)说，总共550条好望角船、每年增加约50条是不够的，所以租船费大幅上升。跟踪全球航运价格的波罗的海干散货航运指数(BalticDry Index)在2008年6月份达到了11,600点。

航运企业以为这种上涨趋势将会延续下去，于是就下订单建造新船，或者是签订高价租船的长期合同。他们错了。中国2010年铁矿石进口量反而下降。2011年同比增长率只有微不足道的8%。与此同时，据梁民说，好望角型船的数量到2010年年底已经增至1,150条，每年新增200条。波罗的海干散货航运指数目前在1,500点左右。航运公司正在品尝产能过剩的滋味。

航运不是唯一过猛下注经济增长、结果陷入产能过剩困境的行业。以铝业为例。中国的年产能2,300万吨，而需求只有1,600万吨左右。麦格理证券(Macquarie)金属分析师GraemeTraine说，预计今年还将增加300万吨到400万吨的产能。最大的输家是中国铝业公司(Chinalco)，这家国有大企业发现自己的利润正因供给过剩而受到挤压。

从整体上来讲，中国的情况并没有一些看空者所说的那么严重。经济体中的某些部分存在产能过剩问题，另一些部分并不存在。在有问题的地方，高增长在某些情况下也可有助于解决问题。比如随着国内需求加速增长，对汽车行业生产过剩的担忧就已经证明是缺乏根据的。

但对航运、铝业和可再生能源来说，产能过剩的冰山已经戳破船壳。投资者应当为跳上救生艇做好准备。

China Encounters Overcapacity

Is China's titanic economy finally running into the iceberg of overcapacity?

Problemsat China Cosco Holdings Co. suggest trouble ahead. Cosco, a giantstate-owned shipping company, has long-term contracts for charteringvessels to carry iron ore, coal and grain around the world. Many dealswere signed in the commodities boom, when the cost of a giant Capesizevessel hit some $200,000 a day. Now the price is $10,000 a day. Theconsequences are showing up in Cosco's bottom line; the firm lost $420million in the first half of the year.

Ironically, the slump inshipping rates is partly of China's own making. From 2003 to 2008,growth in China's iron-ore import volumes averaged 26% a year. JohnsonLeung, an expert on shipping at Jefferies, says a total of 550 Capesizeships, with around 50 added per year, was inadequate. As a result,charter rates jumped. The Baltic Dry Index, which tracks world-wideshipping costs, hit 11,600 in June 2008.

Shipping companies,assuming the upward trend would continue, placed orders for new vesselsor signed long-term contracts to charter ships at high prices. They werewrong. China's iron-ore import volumes actually fell in 2010. In 2011,growth is languishing at 8% year-to-year. The number of Capesizevessels, meanwhile, had risen to 1,150 by the end of 2010, with 200coming on line each year, according to Mr. Leung. A huge rise inshipping capacity and a slowdown in demand growth hammered prices. TheBaltic Dry is now around 1,500. Shipping companies are getting a tasteof what excess capacity feels like.

Shipping isn't the onlysector that placed too-aggressive bets on growth and has been caught outby overcapacity. Take aluminum. China's production capacity is 23million tons a year, versus around 16 million tons of demand. GraemeTraine, metals analyst at Macquarie, says three million to four milliontons in capacity are set to come on line this year. The biggest loser isChinalco, the state-owned giant that finds its own margins squeezed byexcess supply.

The situation in China overall is more nuancedthan some bears suggest. Overcapacity is a problem in some parts of theeconomy and not in others. And where there are problems, rapid growth insome cases can help solve them. Concern about excess production in theauto sector, for example, proved ill-founded as domestic demandaccelerated.

But for shipping, aluminum and renewable energy, theiceberg of overcapacity is already breaching the hull. Investors shouldprepare to man the lifeboats.

Tom Orlik