Diplomat Magazine: Great ChinaOpportunity
Recent world headlines announced that China isofficially the world’s second largest economy after the US. This has put China in the limelight once again and promptedmany questions: What does Chinabeing the second largest economy tell us? How soon is China going toreach number one? Will Chinabe able to sustain such rapid growth? What does China’s development mean to theworld? Let me share my thoughts about these questions.
First of all, I think China’srise to ‘number two’ tells a story of successful development, the secret towhich is simple and open: Chinahas found a development model well suited to its national conditions. Howshould we go about developing a country with 1.3 billion people and a historyof some 5,000 years? Neither textbooks nor history provide us with a readyanswer. As Chinese reformer, politician and diplomat Mr Deng Xiaoping put it,we managed to ‘cross the river by feeling for the stones’. We explored our wayforward in a pioneering spirit by combining the useful experiences of othercountries with the unique circumstances of China.
China’s success also lies in its commitment to reform and ‘opening up’. Thelatter term refers not only to embracing the global economy at every level andin every area, but also to freeing minds – thereby fostering a more open anddiverse society – and nurturing a culture of open and transparent government.‘Reform’, meanwhile, is about transforming our formerly planned economy into avibrant socialist market economy; it is also about making comprehensiveprogress in the political, social and cultural spheres.
Some Westerners believe that China has only implemented economicreforms, leaving its political system untouched. But this is a misunderstandingof China’scomprehensive reform process: during the past three decades, economic growthhas gone hand-in-hand with political progress. We have seen a growing role forthe National People’s Congress as well as multi-party political consultationunder the leadership of the Communist Party. Democratic decision-makingprocesses and the legal system have both been strengthened; a millennia-oldpattern of ‘rule by man’ is giving wayto the rule of law. We have also seen significant progress with respect tohuman rights. The promotion and protection of human rights has been writteninto the Chinese Constitution, and all citizens now enjoy legally protectedrights to equal participation and development; in addition, we havestrengthened our international co-operation on human rights issues.
Not for lack of trying did Western-style democracy fail to bring China theprosperity and strength it had wanted so badly throughout its modern history.Now that we have found our own road to success and a Chinese-style democracy,why should we waver or give these up?
We now come to the second key question: How soon is China going to overtake the USeconomically? Purely in terms of GDP, that day might arrive sooner thanexpected; however, deeper statistical and conceptual analysis produces morenuanced answers. China’seconomic aggregates stood at $5.8 trillion in 2010, ranking it second in theworld. But we must also remember that Chinais the world’s most populous nation; as a result, its per-capita GDP for thesame period was merely $4,300 – lower than that of about 100 other countriesand only one ninth of the UK’sand one tenth of the US’s.That is a gap not likely to be closed within just one or two decades.
Within China,too, there exist significant urban-rural/east-west wealth discrepancies thatwill take time to rectify. We have rich cities, concentrated in the coastalregions, but also poor, under-developed regions in the west of the country. Theurbanization rate is only 46 per cent, and the urban-rural income ratio is ashigh as 3.23:1. I served for two years as Assistant Governor in Gansu, one of the poorest provinces in northwest China. Gansu suffers from toughnatural conditions: desertification threatens the livelihood of the localpeople and economic development is a huge challenge. Many of the children inthe countryside do not have access to computers or the internet. Many boys andgirls have to drop out of school because their families cannot afford theircontinued education.
For all its manufacturing strength, China is still at the lower end ofthe value chain. In many cases, only the labour-intensive parts of production,such as processing and packaging, are done in China – research and development,design, key components manufacturing and marketing tend to be carried out elsewhere.Of China’s export commodities, 90 per cent are original equipment manufacturer(OEM) products which are then incorporated into the products of overseasbrands; as a consequence, 20 per cent of the retail value of every mobilephone, 30 per cent of that of computers and 20-40 per cent of that of ComputerNumerical Control machine tools go to foreign patent owners. There is still along way to go from ‘Made in China’to ‘created in China’.
Statistics show that China’senergy intensity is three-to-four times that of the international average andeight times that of the UK.Chinaaccounts for eight per cent of the world’s GDP, yet it consumes 16 per cent ofthe world’s energy (along with 46 per cent of its iron and steel and 52 percent of its cement). We still have a lot to do to raise the quality andefficiency of our economic growth.
So, although Chinais now the number two economy in the world, we still lag far behind developedcountries in terms of per-capita income and the quality of our GDP. We acknowledgethat Chinais still a developing country not because we are modest or hypocritical or wishto escape from our responsibilities, but rather because we recognise thatdevelopment will remain a top priority for a long time to come.
Our next question is whether China, after three decades, cansustain its fast pattern of growth. The answer to this is positive. China is stillin a phase of rapid industrialisation and urbanisation during which massiveinfrastructure investment is needed. Over the next 20 years, 300 million peopleare expected to move from the countryside to the cities. The Chinese peopleneed to upgrade their consumption pattern, and the western regions need tocatch up with their eastern counterparts. A driving force, then, is never lackingfor the Chinese economy, and there is plenty of potential to be tapped. We havereasons to be optimistic about the future.
The National People’s Congress reviewed and approved China’s twelfthFive-Year Plan at its annual session in March. This is an important blueprintfor China’sdevelopment over the next five years, outlining a number of significantgovernment policies:
We will carry out strategic economic restructuring to expand domesticdemand and promote balanced growth driven by consumption, investment andexports. We will strengthen agriculture, increase the competitiveness ofmanufacturing and give priority to emerging industries and the services sector.The aim is to seek co-ordinated, balanced development across urban and rural aswell as eastern and western areas of China.
We will promote scientific and technological progress and innovation. Wewill speed up efforts to turn Chinainto an innovation-driven country. As Mr Deng Xiaoping pointed out, ‘There isno other productive force more important than science and technology.’ Ourfuture development must rely on scientific and technological progress, a higherquality labour force and innovative management techniques.
We will continue to improve the lives of our people. Economicdevelopment is aimed at serving people’s interests. We will improve socialsecurity, increase job creation, promote equal access to public services andbalance income distribution. This will ensure that the benefits of developmentare shared by all.
We will build an energy-efficient and environmentally friendly society.We need to catch up with developed countries in terms of per-capita GDP, butnot in terms of per-capita energy consumption, as this would be unsustainablefor our planet. Chinacannot follow the traditional, Western path of industrialisation. We must raiseenergy efficiency, reduce emission intensity, develop a circular economy,extensively apply low-carbon technologies and actively address climate change.We must promote sustainable development, achieving an appropriate balance betweeneconomic growth and social progress and between population growth, resourcesconservation and environmental protection.
Finally, what does China’sdevelopment mean to the world? Is it a blessing or a catastrophe; does it bringopportunities or threats? Again, the answer – whether from perspective of worldpeace, the world economy or the international system – is overwhelminglypositive.
China follows an independent foreign policy of peace. We have solemnly pledgedto the world that hegemony or expansion is never an option for China; China stands for non-interferencein others’ internal affairs and negotiated solutions to international disputes.Chinabelieves that security should be based on mutual trust, mutual benefit,equality and co-ordination. Chinais the largest contributor of peacekeepers among the five permanent members ofthe UN Security Council, having so far lent 10,000 peacekeepers to 24 UNmissions. It has sent escort ships to the waters off the Somali coast andworked with the navies of other countries to combat piracy and improve safetyin international waters. It has actively worked to facilitate the Six-PartyTalks to uphold peace and the stability of the KoreanPeninsula and Northeast Asia. Chinais in every way an upholder of peace and a facilitator of stability.
Nor should Chinabe considered a threat to the world economy. Quite the opposite, in fact – China has beena crucial support for global growth since the start of the financial crisis,driving global demand at a time when developed countries are suffering economicdifficulties. So much was reflected in the 31.9-per-cent increase of EU exportsand the 42-per-cent increase of UKexports to Chinain 2010. Chinamaintained a double-digit growth rate last year, and contributed 20 per cent ofglobal economic growth. Chinawill continue to pursue a win-win strategy of opening-up over the next decade;its market will open wider, its share in international trade will increase andits imports will rise. These trends will no doubt create enormous economicopportunities for countries around the world.
China has been participating in and contributing to the current internationalsystem as a responsible major player. It has entered into extensiveco-operation with its international partners, both developed and emerging, onthe reform of global economic and financial governance, and has jointlyadvocated a greater role for the G20. It has strengthened traditionalfriendships with other developing countries and helped them grow theireconomies and reduce poverty. The loans it has provided to other developingcountries in the past two years have surpassed those of the World Bank. Chinasupports and practices multilateralism and stands for greater democracy ininternational relations; this can be seen by its active participation inregional co-operation, along with the support it gives to tackling globalchallenges such as climate change, the supply and conservation of energy andother resources, food security and terrorism.
China’s development is a blessing, not a catastrophe, for the world. It meansopportunities, not threats; it is not to be worried about, still less feared.For as Franklin Roosevelt put it, ‘The only thing we have to fear is fearitself.’
2011年4月1日，中国驻英国大使刘晓明在英国《外交家》杂志4月刊发表题为《摸着石头过河——成功的道路，全面的发展》Crossing the river by feeling for the stones的文章，该刊网络版也同时刊登。文章全文如下：
最近，世界各大媒体聚焦中国正式超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，围绕中国问题的讨论再次升温。我总结了一下人们热议的几个问题：一是中国成为世界第二说明了什么？二是中国是否很快会成为世界第一？三是中国能否持续高速发展？四是中国发展对世界意味什么？我愿就此谈些看法。
首先，中国成为世界第二大经济体说明什么？我认为，它说明了中国发展道路的成功。
中国为什么会取得如此成功？中国成功的经验是什么？
中国成功靠走适合自己国情的道路。一个十三亿人口的大国，一个有五千年文明历史的古国，该走什么样的道路才能发展，教科书上没有现成的答案，历史上也没有可以参考的先例。但中国人“摸着石头过河”，牢牢把握自己的国情，不断探索实践，开拓创新，借鉴吸取世界各国有益经验，实现了天翻地覆的变化。
中国成功靠“改革开放”。开放，不仅是经济上的对外开放，从封闭半封闭到全方位、多层次、宽领域对外开放，更是思想头脑的解放，社会的自由宽松，政府的公开透明。改革，不仅是改革经济制度，将高度集中的计划经济体制改革为充满生机和活力的社会主义市场经济体制，也是政治、社会、文化的全面改革和建设。
西方有些人认为，中国只搞经济改革，不搞政治改革。这是对中国全面改革的一种误解。事实上，30多年来，中国的经济体制改革每推进一步，政治体制改革也深化一步。人民代表大会制度、中国共产党领导的多党合作和政治协商制度，在中国政治生活中的地位和作用越来越大。30多年来，中国民主法制建设不断加强，坚持依法治国，几千年形成的人治社会正在向法治社会转变。30多年来，中国人权事业有了大发展，我们将尊重和保障人权写入了宪法，依法保障全体社会成员平等参与、平等发展的权利，同时加强国际人权合作。
历史上，中国并非没有尝试过西方式的民主，但都并未给中国带来繁荣和富强。今天，我们找到了一条适合自己发展的道路，建立了有中国特色的民主制度，我们有什么理由动摇？有什么理由折腾？
第二个问题，中国是否已在坐二望一，很快超过美国？
也许中国最终在GDP总量上会超过美国，但我们还需要看以下几对关键词：
一是“总量”和“人均”。尽管中国经济总量成了世界第二，去年达到5.8万亿美元，但人均GDP只有4300美元，仍排在世界百位左右，离中等发达国家相距甚远，仅占英国的1/9，美国的1/10，这远非一二十年功夫所能赶超的。
二是“沿海”与“内地”及“城市”与“农村”。中国的沿海很发达，城市很繁荣，但是中国西部经济仍很落后，而且中国的城镇化率仅有46%，城乡居民收入比高达3.23：1。我曾在中国最贫困的省份之一甘肃担任两年省长助理，对此深有感受。甘肃地处大西北，自然条件恶劣，沙漠化对当地人民的生存构成了严峻挑战，经济发展困难很大。许多农村的孩子们没有电脑，更从来没有上过互联网。很多孩子在完成国家9年义务阶段教育后，由于经济原因不得不中止学业。
三是“制造”与“创造”。中国是制造业大国，但很多产品只有加工、封装等劳动力密集型环节在中国完成，研发设计、关键部件和市场营销都在国外，中国处在国际产业链的末端。中国出口商品中90%是贴牌生产，每部手机售价的20%、计算机售价的30%、数控机床售价的20%到40%，都要支付给国外专利持有者。从“中国制造”到“中国创造”还有很长的路要走。
四是“粗放”与“集约”。有数据显示，中国单位GDP的能耗是国际水平的三至四倍，是英国的八倍。中国消耗了全球46％的钢铁、16％的能源、52％的水泥，但仅创造了全球8％左右的GDP。中国经济发展效率还有待大幅提升，需要从“粗放型”向“集约型”发展。
因此，中国经济总量虽然已居世界第二，但人均水平和GDP质量还远没有达到发达国家的水平。我们不是“谦虚”，也不是“虚伪”，更不是想逃避“责任”，而是中国仍然是一个不折不扣的发展中国家。集中精力搞建设，一心一意谋发展，是我们长期的优先任务。我们不追求“虚名”，要的是实实在在的国强和民富。
第三个问题，中国已经高速行进了30多年，今后还能持续快速发展吗？
回答是肯定的。中国还处在工业化中期阶段和城镇化加速上升阶段，中国仍需要大量的基础设施投资，需要在未来20年安置3亿多人口从农村迁移到城市，需要满足人民消费结构从温饱向小康升级换代的需求，需要实现西部地区向东部地区的发展水平看齐，因此中国经济并不缺乏动力，仍有很大的发展空间，我们有充分理由保持乐观。
今年3月召开的全国人民代表大会审议通过了“十二五”规划纲要，这将是未来5年中国发展的重要蓝图。
我们要对中国经济结构进行战略性调整。我们将努力扩大内需，促进经济增长向依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动转变。我们将统筹城乡发展，促进区域良性互动、协调发展。我们要积极推进科技进步和创新，加快建设创新型国家。正如邓小平先生曾经指出的，科技是第一生产力。中国今后的发展必须向主要依靠科技进步、劳动者素质提高、管理创新转变。
我们要更好地保障和改善民生。发展经济，归根结底是为了人民的幸福。我们将完善保障和改善民生的制度安排，把促进就业放在优先位置，推进基本公共服务均等化，加大收入分配调节力度，使发展成果惠及全体人民。
我们要建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会。中国人均GDP要向西方国家看齐，但人均能源消费绝不能赶超发达国家，因为我们生活的地球实在承受不起。我们不能走西方国家工业化的老路。我们要节约能源，降低温室气体排放强度，发展循环经济，推广低碳技术，积极应对气候变化，促进经济社会发展与人口资源环境相协调，走可持续发展之路。
第四个问题，中国发展了，对世界意味着什么？是福还是祸？是机遇还是威胁？
我们不妨看三点：
一是中国给世界和平带来威胁了吗？中国奉行独立自主的和平外交政策，庄严地向世界承诺永远不称霸，永远不搞扩张；主张不干涉别国内部事务和谈判解决国际争端；倡导互信、互利、平等、协作的新安全观。中国是联合国安理会常任理事国中派出维和人员最多的国家，累计参与24项联合国维和行动，派出上万名维和人员；中国向索马里海域派出护航舰队，与多国舰队一道打击海盗，维护国际水域的安全；中国大力倡导朝核问题六方会谈，努力维护半岛和地区的和平稳定。无论从中国的外交思想，还是外交行动来看，中国都是世界和平的维护者、稳定的促进者。
二是中国给世界经济带来威胁了吗？金融危机以来，中国为全球经济增长提供了重要支撑。欧盟去年对华出口增长31.9%，英国则增长42%。去年中国经济继续保持两位数增长，对世界经济增长贡献率达到20%。今后10年，中国将继续奉行互利共赢的开放战略，市场对外开放程度将进一步提高，在国际贸易中的比重会不断上升，从国际市场的进口仍会迅速增加。这些对世界各国来说，只会是巨大的发展机遇。
三是中国对现行国际体系构成威胁了吗？中国作为一个负责任的大国，是国际体系的参与者、建设者和贡献者。我们与发达国家和新兴经济体就促进世界经济金融治理广泛开展合作，共同倡导加强G20机制；我们加强与发展中国家的传统友谊，帮助经济开发和实现减贫，过去两年里中国向其他发展中国家的贷款已经超过了世界银行；我们支持、倡导并践行多边主义，推动国际关系民主化，积极参与区域合作进程，努力促进国际体系更加有效地应对气候变化、能源和资源、粮食安全、恐怖主义等全球性挑战。
总之，中国的发展对世界是福不是祸，是机遇不是威胁。世界对中国不应感到担忧，更不应感到恐惧。美国已故总统弗兰克林·罗斯福说的好：“我们唯一恐惧的就是恐惧本身。”
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英国《外交家》杂志创刊于1947年，是驻英外交界广泛阅读的刊物之一。该杂志以报道驻英外交界主要活动、对各国驻英使节访谈、国际问题评论等为主要内容，读者包括各国驻英外交官、英国内阁和影阁成员、上下院议员、欧洲议会议员、国际问题专家与学者等。
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