九乡新闻网英国气候大臣:通胀担忧导致美欧加息预期提前 - 双语阅读 - FT中文网
来源：百度文库 编辑：九乡新闻网 时间：2024/07/04 20:30:48
Hundreds of billions of dollars have exchanged hands this year in bets on when the next interest rate rises will be in the US, UK and eurozone, as volumes have surged in these markets because of the growing threat of inflation.
在押注美国、英国和欧元区下次加息时机方面，今年以来已经有数千亿美元资金易手。由于通胀威胁日趋严重，这些市场成交量激增。
Financial markets are betting that the UK will be the first to raise rates in June, followed by the European Central Bank in September and finally the US Federal Reserve in December.
金融市场目前押注英国将率先于6月加息，接着欧洲央行将于9月加息，最后美联储将于12月加息。
Rising food and commodity prices have prompted markets to bring forward expectations of rate rises, sparking the jump in volumes as inflation has become one of the biggest concerns for businesses, consumers and investors.
食品和大宗商品价格持续上涨，已使市场加息预期提前，导致成交量大幅增长，因为通胀已成为企业、消费者和投资者最为担心的问题之一。
The increasing focus on inflation has also triggered a debate over the accuracy of these predictions, with opinions divided over how much faith investors should place in them.
人们日益关注通胀，也引发了关于这些预期是否准确的辩论。对于投资者应该对这些预期抱多大程度的信任，分析师们意见分歧。
Don Smith, economist at Icap, said: “The market forecasts are as good a guide as you will get. They are in a sense . . . multibillion-dollar predictions because of the vast amount of money behind the trades that set them.”
毅联汇业(ICAP)经济学家唐•史密斯(Don Smith)表示：“市场预期是你能够找到的最好的指引。它们在某种意义上……是数以十亿美元计的预测，因为确定市场预期的交易背后是数额巨大的资金。”
Some strategists also argue that rate forecasts can be self-fulfilling, as central banks do not like to surprise markets.
一些策略师还认为，利率预期具有自我实现能力，因为央行不喜欢让市场感到意外。
However, John Wraith, fixed-income strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch, said: “Market rate expectations are useful indicators, but they only tell you the consensus market view at any given point in time. Circumstances change and so do they.”
然而，美银美林(BofA Merrill Lynch)固定收益策略师约翰•瑞斯(John Wraith)表示：“市场利率预期是有用的指标，但它们只能告诉你某个时间点的市场共识。随着情况变化，它们也会变化。”
译者/杨远