酉时五行缺什么:澳大利亚的经济状况和前景

Glenn Stevens

Governor

总裁

Address to the Economic Society of Australia (Queensland) 2011 Business Luncheon

在澳大利亚（昆士兰）经济社会2011商业午餐会上的讲话

Brisbane - 15 June 2011

Brisbane - 15 June 2011

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Thank you for the invitation to visit Brisbane today and to join with the Economic Society here in Queensland to talk about our economic situation. 

首先感谢今天受邀参观布里斯本，参加昆士兰的经济社会研讨并谈论我们的经济形势。

It is barely five months since the flooding that inundated parts of Brisbane and had such a tragic impact only a couple of hours west of here in Toowoomba and the Lockyer Valley. It is only four months since Cyclone Yasi wrought havoc on some northern coastal communities and flattened key crops. The people of Brisbane, and of Queensland, have shown their resilience and adaptability in the face of these disasters. 

虽然距淹没布里斯本部分地区的洪水以及造成的惨重影响（这里距Toowoomba and the Lockyer Valley仅两小时）仅仅5个月，距离飓风Yasi对北部海岸社区和重要农作物造成的浩劫仅仅4个月，但布里斯本和昆士兰的人们在面对这些灾难时，已显示出他们的坚韧顽强和适应能力。

The economic effects of those events, and of the Western Australian cyclones over the summer, have been seen at the national level. Falls in coal and iron ore production more than fully explained the decline in measured economic output in the March quarter, which occurred not because demand slumped but because the economy's capacity to supply output was temporarily curtailed. There was also a sharp rise in some prices, which tends to happen when supply is suddenly disrupted. Bananas are the most celebrated manifestation of this. With 75 per cent of the crop more or less destroyed, and few sources of alternative supply available, prices to the consumer have quadrupled. 

这些事件对经济的影响，以及夏季（澳洲1，2 月是夏季）以来西澳的飓风，被视为是国家级的。煤炭和铁矿石产量的减少远远超出对已统计出的一季度产量下降的解释，就是并不是由于需求的突然下降，而是因为产能供应被暂时缩减了。有些商品价格也出现急剧上升，正像供应被突然中断时发生的那样。香蕉是对此最知名的证明，随着这种作物的75%或多或少被摧毁，而且很少有其他替代资源供应，价格到达消费者时已涨了四倍。

The effects of these natural disasters are now gradually abating. Information on coal mining suggests that it is gradually recovering, though more slowly than had been expected initially owing to the difficulties of getting water out of the pits. Iron ore production has fully recovered. The banana plants are re-generating. Most other crops are also getting back to normal supply levels. As this occurs, we should see the impact of these events on prices start to reverse. For Queensland, the scars from last summer's events remain – and always will. The destruction of capital stock is a loss of wealth, but capital can ultimately be rebuilt; lives lost cannot. 

自然灾害的影响在逐渐减弱，煤矿的信息显示生产正逐渐恢复，尽管由于从矿井中抽水的困难，比期望的要慢。铁矿石生产已全部恢复，香蕉也正重新种植，多数其他农作物也恢复到正常供应水平。随着这些的发生，应该看到这些事件对价格的影响正在逆转。对于Queensland上个夏天发生的伤痛仍然，并将一直存在，证券资本的毁坏是价值的失去，但资本最终可以复原，生命的失去却不能。

But despite the tragedy, Queenslanders are getting on with things. 

尽管有这些不幸，但昆士兰人仍在继续不懈地努力着。

The broader context in which these events have occurred is well known. The proverbial pet-shop galah can by now recite the facts on Australia's trade with China and our terms of trade, which are at a level not seen in over a century. It was already clear by about 2006 that something quite profound was happening in the continuing rapid growth of China, India and other emerging countries.[1] This upward trajectory continued, and even accelerated in some cases, in the subsequent period. Then the crisis occurred, and the Chinese economy slowed abruptly. But the authorities responded forcefully and China's economy returned to very strong growth quite quickly. And so the trends in place up to the middle of 2008 had resumed within a year. 

这些事件发生的广阔背景众所周知。现在用谚语“pet-shop galah”可以说明一个事实，就是澳大利亚同中国的贸易以及贸易比率（terms of trade）处在从未有的水平上。到2006年已经非常清楚，在持续快速发展的中国、印度和其它新兴国家，有深远意义的事情正在发生。在随后的时期，这个上行轨道会继续，并且在某些情况下会加速。后来出现危机，中国经济突然放慢，但由于当局强有力的反应，中国经济相当快的恢复强劲增长，因此到2008中期转好的趋势持续到全年。

The rapid growth in Chinese, Indian and other emerging world demand has been stimulating demand in the global economy, despite the weakness in demand from the ‘north Atlantic’ group of countries. This gives a boost to a country like Australia: our economy's increased exposure to Asia – the part of the world where much of the growth is occurring – plus the high terms of trade make for an expansionary macroeconomic event. At present Australia's terms of trade are about 85 per cent above their 20th century average. The amount of additional income accruing to production in Australia from that is 15 per cent or more of annual GDP. Even allowing for the fact that a substantial fraction of this income accrues to foreign investors that own large stakes in many of Australia's resources companies, this represents a very large boost to national income. 

中国、印度和其他新兴世界快速成长带来的需求正刺激着全球经济，尽管“北大西洋”国家的需求微弱。这样就带给像澳大利亚这样的国家一个繁荣：因为我们经济增长的方向正朝向亚洲，世界大部分的增长正在发生的地方，加上对于一个扩张的宏观经济活动形成的高贸易比率，目前澳大利亚的贸易比率比20世纪平均水平高85%，产品的年GDP收入增加量对此是高15%，即使考虑在澳大利亚资源公司拥有大量股份的外国投资所占部分，这也代表着国民收入的大幅提高。

These expansionary forces are at work on an Australian economy that was widely regarded as very fully employed by early 2008, and that experienced only a fairly mild and short downturn thereafter. As of today, measures of capacity utilisation are not as high as at the end of 2007, and unemployment is not as low as it was then. Nonetheless, the degree of slack in the economy overall does not seem large in comparison with the apparent size of the expansion in resources sector income and investment now under way. 

这种扩张力对澳大利亚经济很有作用，表现在受广泛关注的到2008年早期的充分就业，从那之后，经历了相当的缓慢增长和短期的衰退。以致今天，资本利用的程度没有2007年底高，失业率也不像那时那么低。虽然如此，总体经济萧条的程度，同目前正进行的收入和投资在资源领域的扩展相比，似乎比不大。

With that general outlook, it follows that macroeconomic policies must be configured in the expectation that there will need to be some degree of restraint. Monetary policy has already been exerting some restraint for a while. Looking ahead, our most recent analysis (as published in early May) concluded that the underlying rate of inflation is more likely to rise than fall over the next couple of years. This central expectation – subject to all the usual uncertainties inherent in forecasting – suggests, as we said at the time, that ‘further tightening of monetary policy is likely to be required at some point for inflation to remain consistent with the 2–3 per cent medium-term target’. It remains, though, a matter for judgement by the Board as to whether that point has been reached. At its most recent meeting, the Board's view was that it had not been. New information will, as always, be important in our monthly assessments of what monetary policy needs to do. As far as prices are concerned, we will get another comprehensive round of data in late July. 

一般认为，宏观经济政策必须随着在预期有必要做出某种程度限制的地方进行配置。货币政策已经实施了一段时期。向前看，我们最近的分析（5月早期公布）的结论是，今后几年潜在通胀率可能升高。主要预期是----预测会受到固有的不确定性的影响----“为保持2-3%通货膨胀率的持续，在某些时点可能要求货币政策进一步从紧”，这取决于联储委员会对情况的判断。关于是否到达了这个点，在最近的会议上，委员会的观点是还没有，新的信息对于每月的评估货币政策需要做什么将会，也一直会是重要的。至于对价格的关注，我们将在7月底得到一系列综合的数据。

Fiscal policy is also playing a significant role. The ‘fiscal impact’, calculated as the shift in the Federal budget position from one year to the next, is forecast to be minus 2 per cent of GDP in the 2011/12 fiscal year. A further, though slightly smaller, effect is forecast by the Treasury in the following year. 

政府财政政策正扮演一个重要角色，“财政影响”，作为联邦预算状况从一年到下一年转移的核算，预测在2011/12财年GDP会减少2%。一个更进一步的预测将在下一年将由财政部做出，尽管稍微更小。

There remain, of course, differences in economic performance around the country. Given movements in commodity prices over the past year and the stated investment intentions of major resources companies, these differences are more likely to increase than decrease over the coming period. More generally, while everyone understands that there is a ‘mining boom’, many people would say that they themselves cannot directly feel the effects. We have seen widespread re-emergence of talk of ‘two speed’ or ‘multi speed’ economies. Within the state of Queensland itself there were differences in performance, even before the floods, let alone after them.

How then do we make sense of these phenomena? 

那么这些现象对我们有怎样的意义呢？

It is a complex story, and I do not wish to make light of any of the legitimate concerns that people have about the differing economic conditions – actual and potential – across regions or industries. But there are three observations worth making. 

这是个复杂故事，我不想轻描淡写的对待那些有不同经济状况的人们的任何合理的关切------真实的和潜在的-------跨地区或行业的。但有三点意见值得一提：

The first is that the impact of the resources sector expansion does get spread around, in more ways than might immediately be apparent. Obviously mining employs only a small share of the workforce directly – less than 2 per cent. But to produce a dollar of revenue, companies spend about 40 cents on acquiring non labour intermediate inputs, primarily from the domestic sector. Apart from the direct physical inputs, there are effects on utilities, transport, business services such as engineering, accounting, legal, exploration and other industries. It is noteworthy that a number of these areas are growing quickly at present. 

首先是资源行业扩张的影响得到广泛传播，可能立即表现在很多方面，很明显矿产就业在劳动力中只占很小份额------小于2%。但每产生一元的收入，公司要在非劳力的中间投入上花费40分，主要来自民用部门。除了直接的物质投入，还要受到公用工程、交通、商业服务，如工程、会计、法律、勘探及其他专业。目前这些方面的快速增长是非常显著的。

Once the costs of producing the output and other factors – such as taxes – are taken into account, the remaining revenue is distributed to shareholders or retained. While a significant proportion of the earnings distributed goes offshore, local shareholders also benefit. In fact, most of us are shareholders in the mining industry through our superannuation schemes.[2] We don't get this income directly to spend now – it is in our superannuation. Nonetheless, it is genuine income and a genuine increase in wealth. 

产生产值和其它因素的成本，如税收，被考虑之后，剩余收入被分配给股东或被保留。在这期间，很大的收入分配比例给了海外，同时当地股东也能获益。事实上，我们大多数通过养老金计划，在矿产行业我们也是股东。我们没有直接获得收入可以花费，它在我们的养老金里。虽然如此，它仍是可观的收入，也是可观的财富增加。

A good proportion of the earnings retained by companies is used to fund a further build up of physical investment, which imparts demand to construction and manufacturing. Based on the industry liaison the Bank has done, around half – give or take – of the demand generated by these projects is typically filled locally, though, of course, this amount varies with the nature and details of any specific project. 

保留一个良好的收入比例用于将来实物投资的建立，这会给建筑和制作业带来需求。基于银行已做的行业联系，大约一半的需求，是由这些通常在当地被满足的项目给与或带来的，当然对于任何专门项目的性质和细节，这个数量是多种多样的。

So there are effects that spill over, even though it is not always easy to spot them. In the end the combination of the resources sector strength and all the other factors at work in the economy has, to date, produced a national rate of unemployment of around 5 per cent, and in Queensland only a bit over 5 per cent. There are regional variations in unemployment rates, but at this point these look comparable to what has been seen at most times in the past 10 years – a period that has seen both lower average unemployment rates and lower variation in unemployment rates than the preceding decade. 

因此有效果产生，即使不总是容易被发现。在资源部门优势组合的最后以及所有其他因素的作用下，到目的为止，形成了一个大约5%国家失业率，昆士兰仅超过5%一点儿。在失业率上有地区差异，但在过去10年大多数时间能被看到的看似可比较的这方面，能够看到这个时期比早十年有更低的平均失业率和失业率变化。

Secondly, some of the undoubted differences in performance observable at present look like the inverse of earlier differences. Take housing prices and population growth, which are of course quite closely related. It surely is no coincidence that the two state capitals that have had the clearest evidence of declining house prices over the past couple of years – Brisbane and Perth – are the two that previously had the highest rate of population growth and that have since had the biggest decline in population growth. Moreover, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that changes in relative housing costs between states, while certainly not the only factor at work, have played an important role. Relative costs are affected by interstate population flows, but those costs then in turn have a feed-back effect on population flows. This is particularly so for Queensland. 

第二，目前一些可观察到的在表现上毫无疑问的差异，看上去像早期差异的反转。拿房价和人口增长来说，它们当然相当紧密相关，非常确定这两个洲的首府，布里斯本和珀斯，有最清晰的证据显示过去十年以来房价下降是不一致的，前者有最高的人口增长率，后者却是人口增长率降低最大的。此外，很难否定这个结论，就是各州之间有关房屋成本的变化，虽然扮演着重要的角色，然而肯定不是唯一起作用的因素。相关的成本还受州际人口流动的影响，但这个成本对人口流动也有一个反馈的效果，昆士兰是特别如此。

Historically, Queensland has had faster population growth than the southern states, as it has seen a slightly higher natural increase, a rate of net international migration on par with other states and a very substantial net positive flow of interstate migrants. Net interstate migration to Queensland peaked around 2003 – not long after Sydney dwelling prices had reached a new high relative to other cities. Interstate migration at that time was contributing a full percentage point a year to Queensland's population growth. By 2008 this flow had slowed a bit, but international migration had picked up and Queensland's population growth increased, peaking at nearly 3 per cent. Western Australia's population growth was even higher, peaking at almost 3½ per cent. 

从历史上看，昆士兰有着比南部各州更快的人口增长，正像它有稍微高的自然增长一样。它有着与其它州相当的净国际移民率，和非常大的州际移民净正流量。昆士兰的净州际移民在2003达到顶峰----就是在悉尼的居住价格与其它城市比达到一个新高后不久。那时候州际移民对昆士兰的人口增长贡献者完全的百分点。到2008流动有所减慢，但国际移民已经跟进，昆士兰的人口仍旧增长，顶峰时达到近3%。西澳的人口增长甚至更高，顶峰时差不多是3%。

Meanwhile, at least up to 2007, people were confident and finance was readily available. Brisbane housing prices, which had been a bit over half of the average level of Sydney and Melbourne prices in 2002, had risen to be almost the same by 2008, which was unusually high. 

同时，至少到2007年，人们充满信心，资金很容易获得，布里斯本的房价，在2002年是悉尼和墨尔本的平均水平的一半多一点，到2008年时已涨到差不多相当，高的不寻常。

The rate of interstate migration to Queensland then slowed further, to be at its lowest in at least a decade. The effects of that on state population growth were compounded by a decline in international migration, something seen in all states. At the same time, finance became more difficult to obtain and lenders and borrowers alike became more risk averse. This happened everywhere, but its effects in Queensland seem to have been more pronounced. Since then, Brisbane housing prices have been declining relative to those in the southern capitals and the construction sector here has found it tough going. 

昆士兰的州际移民率于是进一步放缓，达到至少是十年内的最低。对州人口增长的影响还混合着国际移民的减少，几度被看作对所有州。同时，资金变得更难获得，债权人和债务人同样的变得更加厌恶风险，各处都发生，但它在昆士兰的影响看似被更加强调。从那以后，布里斯本的房价相当南部各州首府不断下降，同时那里的建筑业也经营艰难。

So a complex interaction of forces – the commodity price cycle, the financial cycle, population flows, endogenous responses of housing prices that then feed back to population flows and so on – has been occurring. The ebb and flow of these forces has made for differences in performance, first in one direction, then the other. 

因此一个复杂的相互作用力正已形成-----商品价格周期、财务周期、人口流动、房价的内生反应反馈给人口的流动等。这些力量的涨落形成了不同的表现，首先在一个方向上，然后是其他方向。

Thirdly, the industry make-up of our economy is continually changing. While this is often a slow process – almost imperceptible in most years – these shifts have been significant over time. There is little doubt that trade-exposed manufacturing firms not linked to the resources sector are facing tough conditions at present. But many people might be surprised to learn that the peak in manufacturing's share of Australia's GDP was in the late 1950s – more than five decades ago. Its fastest rate of relative decline, so far, was probably in the second half of the 1970s. On the other hand ‘business services’ – including things such as accountancy, legal and numerous other services – have grown fairly steadily and now are credited with more than twice the share of GDP of manufacturing.[3] Several of these sectors are being boosted by the flow-on effects of the resources boom at present. 

第三，构成我们经济的产业在持续变化，尽管这经常是很缓慢的过程----差不多是很多年的渐变----但许多年后这些转移却有重大意义。有点怀疑的是出口贸易型的制造业公司，与资源行业没有联系，目前正面临着艰难的情况。但许多人可能惊讶的知道，制造业占澳大利亚GDP的份额，在1950年代晚期达到顶峰，也就是50多年前。而它相应最快速的减少，到目前为止，可能是在1970年底后半期。另一方面“商业服务”，包括诸如会计、法律和大量的其它服务，一直增长的相对稳定，现在被誉为是制造业所占GDP份额的两倍。若干个这些行业是被目前矿产繁荣带来的流动效应(flow-on effects)所激励的。

As for the mining sector itself, its share of GDP has tended to rise since the late 1960s, having been quite low in the mid 20th century. But in 2010, the mining sector's share of GDP was still only about the same as it was in 1910. It will surely increase noticeably over the next five years, though will remain much smaller than it was in the gold rush era. 

至于矿业部门本身，自从1960年代后期它占GDP份额就已趋于提高，而20世纪中期曾经是十分低。但到2010，矿业部门占GDP份额也仅仅是与1910年水平持平。它将肯定在今后的5年会有增长显著，尽管不如淘金热时代gold rush era。

 Again, none of this is to deny that there are differences in performance by industry and region. It is simply to give some perspective on what we see. 

再次说明，这不是否认按照行业和地区的不同会有不同的表现，仅是给出一些我们看到的前景展望。

The point about long term shifts reminds us to look beyond the immediate conjuncture, and to think about the magnitude of the event through which we are living. For a good part of the change in our terms of trade is a manifestation of a large and persistent change in global relative prices. Let me be clear here: there is a cyclical dimension to the China story, and it is important that we remember that. But there is also a structural dimension. And the associated change in relative prices constitutes a force for significant structural change in the economy. I think we have all only begun to grasp its implications relatively recently. 

在长期转移这点是提醒我们展望要超出当前的局面，要通过我们当前的生活，去考虑有关重大事件。对于好的变化部分，如我们的贸易比率(terms of trade)，就是对于巨大和持续的“全球价格变化”的明示。让我在此澄清：对于中国情况China story有一个周期度cyclical dimension，记住它是很重要的；但也还有一个结构度structural dimension，在相关价格中，相关联的变化会形成一股力量，对经济中重大的结构变化其作用。我认为我们仅是在最近开始抓住了它相关的蕴含。

For a long time, the world price of foodstuffs and raw materials tended to decline relative to the prices of manufactures, services and assets. But for some years now the prices of things that are grown, dug up or otherwise extracted have been rising relative to those other prices. This is mainly due to trends in global demand. At any point in time for a particular product we can appeal to supply-side issues – a drought, a flood or a mine or well closure, or some geo political event that is seen as pushing up prices. But stepping back, the main supply problem is really that there has simply been more demand than suppliers were prepared or able to meet at the old prices. 

长期以来，世界的食品和原材料的价格，对于制造品、服务和资产的价格来说，是趋于下降的，但近些年这些东西的价格已经上涨，被挖掘出或者说被提取出对于其它价格的涨价因素。这主要由于全球需求的趋势。对于特定商品在任何时点上我们都能注意到供应一边的问题----干旱、洪水或矿井关闭，或一些地缘政治事件都被视为推动价格上涨的因素。但退一步，这些主要的供应问题实际上能简单被更多的满足，而且比供应者准备或能够用原先价格来满足的供应都多。

We do not have to look far for the cause: hundreds of millions of people in the emerging world have seen growth in their incomes and associated changes in their living standards, and they want to live much more like we have been living for decades. This means they are moving towards a more energy- and steel-intensive way of life and a more protein-rich diet. That fact is fundamentally changing the shape of the world economy. Even if China's growth rate moderates this year, as it seems to be doing, these structural forces almost certainly will continue. 

我确实不必对此原因看的更远：在新兴世界上亿的人们已经看到了他们收入的增加和生活标准的变化，他们想生活的更好，就像我们几十年来一直生活的那样。这意味着他们正在朝多能源和钢铁集中的生活方式，和多富含蛋白质的饮食的方向迈进，这个事实正在根本上改变世界经济的模式。即使中国增长率今年放缓，正像它正在做的，这些结构性的影响力几乎必将继续。

It is worth noting in this connection that many commentators have for years been calling on policymakers in the emerging world to adopt growth strategies that rely more on domestic demand and less on exports to major countries. This is happening. It carries the implication though that, first, more of the marginal global spending dollar is going to products that are steel-, energy- and protein-intensive for the emerging world's consumers and less on other things like, say, luxury property in western countries. 

同这种论调相联系是毫无价值的，就是许多评论家多年来一直号召新兴世界的决策者在采取的增长战略上，更多的依赖内需，并减少对主要国家出口，这正在发生。可这样在传递着内涵，首先，更多的全球边际消费资金正打算生产针对新兴世界消费者的多钢铁，多能量和多蛋白质的产品，如在西方国家的豪华住宅。

Secondly, more of the marginal production of the world economy has to be in those raw material intensive products – and in the raw materials themselves – and less in the production of the other things. Ultimately there will be enough steel, energy, food and so on to meet demand – supply is responding. But considerable adjustment is needed to get there (and Australia is a very prominent part of that adjustment). 

第二，世界经济的大多数边际生产不得不进行原材料密集的产品，和原材料本身，更少生产其它东西。最终将会有有足够的钢铁、能源、食品等等来满足需求----供应正在做出反应。但合理的调整是必须的（澳大利亚就是这种调整的一个显著部分）。

The average consumer in an advanced economy is effectively experiencing a decline in purchasing power over food, energy, and raw material-intensive manufactures. Australian consumers face this to some extent as well. Were Australia not a producer of raw materials, we would be experiencing a good deal more of it. In such a world, there would be no resources sector build up. Our currency would be much lower. We would be paying much more for petrol at the pump, for our daily coffee and for a wide range of other consumer products. We would not be holidaying overseas in our current numbers. 

发达国家的一般消费者正在实际上经历着在购买力的降低，通过食品、能源和原材料密集制造品。澳洲消费者面临的范围更大一些。假如澳洲不是原材料的生产者，我们将能感受到比这更好的交易。在这样一个世界，将没有资源产业的建立，我们的币值将会非常低，我们将会支付更多的燃料费，以及包括日常咖啡和其它更广范围的其它消费品，我们也不会有像现在数量的海外度假。

We would have more of some other forms of economic activity that we currently have less of – we would, perhaps, be less of a ‘multi speed’ economy. But it's unlikely our economy overall would be stronger. As it is, the rate of unemployment has seldom, in the past few decades, been much lower than it has been recently. Moreover, in that alternative world the real income of Australians in aggregate would be a good deal smaller. 

我们将会有更多其它的农业经济活动，而不像是现在更少，我们或许比“多倍速”经济更低，但我们的经济不可能总体更强。如果是这样，失业率会很低，在过去的十几年，就是比现在非常低的。此外，在这样的世界里，澳洲人真正的收入总体上将会相当的低。

But Australia is a resource producer, so we have the advantage of being able to take part in the additional supply of things that are in strong demand. This helps our incomes. Mining companies are doing their best to capitalise on the increase in demand, and the effects of this will flow through the economy, but other producers are also enjoying a boost to their income. Rises in the global prices of rural commodities over the past couple of years have been sufficient to deliver higher prices to most farmers despite the appreciation of the Australian dollar. 

但澳大利亚是资源生产者，因此我们有这个优势，能够去参与那些有着强劲需求的东西的额外供应，这增加了我们的收入。矿产公司正最好的做着将需求的增加资本化的事，它的影响将带给经济，但其它生产者也在享受着繁荣带来的收入。过去两年全球农产品价格的升高，使大多数农场主足够推出更高的价格，尽管存在澳币的升值。

As consumers, the rise in our currency means that we take some of that higher income in the form of greater command over tradeable goods and services. The foreign exchange market being what it is – namely an asset market – it has looked a long way forward into the resources boom and pushed up the currency quite quickly. This is having significant effects. While consumers do seem to be continuing their more cautious mindset overall, many seem over the past year to have had the confidence to leave the country to experience foreign travel at prices more attractive than any seen for a long time. Australia's tourism sector is feeling the resultant loss of business, particularly in Queensland where the floods also had a separate impact on confidence. That latter effect will pass – Queensland's set of natural endowments that attract tourists remains in place. But the need to adapt to the high exchange rate may continue. 

作为消费者，我们货币的升值意味着，在通过可贸易的商品和服务，有更大的需求的形式下，我们得到了更高的收入。外汇市场就像这样---也是资产市场----对于资源繁荣它看涨，向上推动非常快。这产生了重要的影响，当消费者似乎在继续他们总体的谨慎心态的时候，许多人似乎自去年以来就已经有信心离开国家，在价格比任何时期看上去都有吸引力的情况下去体验国外旅游去了。澳洲的旅游业正在感觉业务失去的发生，特别在昆士兰，洪水对信心也有一个分散的影响。后者的影响将会过去，昆士兰一系列的自然风光是对旅游者最好的吸引，但是对适用高汇率的需要可能会继续。

For as well as conveying a rise in purchasing power to consumers, the high exchange rate is exerting a powerful force for structural change. I think we are seeing this in the retail sector. The rapid growth of internet commerce – from a very small base – has been the topic of considerable discussion. This was bound to happen anyway with technology. But with the higher Australian dollar, the component of the retail ‘product’ that is added in Australia – the local distribution and retailing overheads that are required to provide the retail ‘experience’ – has become both much more visible, and much higher relative to the production cost of the good itself. So the incentive for the consumer to avoid those overhead costs has increased quite noticeably. The retail sector is therefore under pressure to reduce those costs. 

 同时对消费者购买力也传递着一个上升，高汇率对结构改变正在施加力量。我想我们正看到的是在零售业。互联网商务的快速增长----从很小的基础开始----已经是大量讨论的主题。尽管发生与技术紧密联系，但伴随着更高的澳元，在澳大利亚零售“产品”的组成被增加了----本地派送分发，以及被要求提供零售“经验”而产生的零售管理费用----都变得更明显，也使货物本身的产品成本更加高了。消费者对于避免这些管理成本的敏感性也增加的非常显著，零售业也因此处在试图减少这种成本的压力之下。

These are just some of the structural adjustment forces at work. Of course it is easy to talk about structural change in the abstract. It is another thing to cope with it in practice. There are no magic-pill solutions, nor are there any real alternatives to adjustment. What solutions there are, though, are likely to involve a re-focusing on productivity performance after a period in which, at least at a national level, our productivity growth has been disappointing. 

仅有部分结构调整力在起作用。抽象的谈结构改变是容易的，另一件事是在实践中的处理，没有魔力丸似的解决，也没有任何对调整的变通。有解决办法，尽管这样，很可能要涉及对生产力表现的再关注，在一个时期之后，至少是国家的层面上，我们的生产力增长是令人失望的。

Yet, as I have said before, this is a much better problem to have than those we see in many advanced countries. The event to which we have to adjust is inherently income-increasing for Australia. Moreover, we do not carry the legacies of the past several years in our banks' or public sector balance sheets that are such an impediment in other places. 

然而，如我先前所说，这是个比我们在其他发达国家所看到的更好的问题。我们需要去调整的事情对澳洲来说是关于收入的增加。此外，我们不必承担那些在银行和公共部门资产负债表中存在的过去几年的遗留问题，这在其他一些地方是如此一个妨碍。

Conclusion

结论

Queenslanders have shown their resilience and adaptability this year in the face of extraordinary events. People from elsewhere in Australia have nothing but admiration for you. 

昆士兰人今年在面对特别事件时展示出了它们的坚韧性和适应性。来自澳大利亚其它地方的人们除了对他们敬仰之外没有其它的。undefined

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Resilience and adaptability are among the characteristics we will all need in order to cope with a global environment that is growing more complex rather than less, and that presents both economic challenges and opportunities greater than those we have seen for many years. 

坚韧性和适应性是所有特性里我们全都需要用来应对日益复杂的全球环境的，它也呈现出比我们多年来看到的更大的经济挑战和机遇。undefined

The task for the economics profession – all of us here today and in like gatherings and institutions around the country – is to do our part in trying to understand these challenges and opportunities, to explain them to our communities, and to articulate the responses that are most likely to see our country prosper.

经济学同行的任务----今天我们在这的所有人和全国同样的gatherings and institutions，是让我们这部分人试着去明白这些挑战和机遇，然后再向社会去解释他们，去澄清那些最可能看到我们国家繁荣的回应。undefined